Welterweight veteran Demian Maia (26-9, 3 KOs, 13 SUBs) meets Anthony Rocco Martin (16-4, 1 KO, 9 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN 3 on Saturday, June 29, 2019 at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
It’s tough to make it as a one-dimensional fighter in the UFC, but Demian Maia is proof that being ridiculously good at one thing can get you pretty far. As a Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard with zero striking skills, Maia earned not one, but two title shots in two different weight classes. 99% of fighters go their entire career without even getting close.
However, it looks like Maia’s time as a top contender has come to an end. A 3-fight losing streak to Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman was a disaster - the 41-year old wasn’t even competitive. But in his most recent outing, Maia bounced back with a first-round win over Lyman Good by...wait for it...submission. The rear-naked choke moved into a tie for 3rd most submission wins in UFC history. He is obviously a guy that can own a lot of pro fighters on the mat.
This Saturday, Maia locks horns with Anthony Rocco Martin on an ESPN proper card in Minneapolis. Martin has been hot ever since moving up from lightweight, winning four straight. He’s not too shabby of a grappler himself, with nice submission wins in 16 career victories. Of course, challenging Maia on the mat is kind of like trying to take out Klay Thompson in a 3-point shootout.
Though Maia’s title contender status is gone, he’s still a big name at 170 pounds - the guy you beat to get a title shot. While Martin still has a lot to prove in the division, he could earn a big fight with a win here. Let’s break down his chances, along with the UFC odds at the online sportsbook. Live UFC betting comes in handy if you need to hedge your bets between rounds.
UFC Odds at BookMaker
Anthony Rocco Martin +150
Demian Maia -105
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -130 / -110
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Maia 1.77 / Martin 2.82
Accuracy: Maia 42% / Martin 38%
Absorbed per minute: Maia 1.94 / Martin 2.72
Defense: Maia 64% / Martin 59%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Maia 2.56 / Martin 0.82
Takedown accuracy: Maia 25% / Martin 25%
Takedown defense: Maia 65% / Martin 50%
Submission average: Maia 1.07 / Martin 1.13
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Martin not only has a lot more cardio at 170 pounds, but he’s actually found a good striking game as well. Even more surprisingly, he can really pop at a higher weight class. His head kick KO of Ryan LaFlare was an eye-opener, but he reminded everybody how good he was at grappling when he submitted Jake Matthews with an anaconda choke in his next fight out.
Anybody with a semi-decent striking game and an ounce of quickness can usually beat Maia in a pure kickboxing, which gives Martin the advantage on the feet. The question is whether he can stop Maia’s takedowns. While the Brazilian’s wrestling is ugly, it’s shockingly effective. Much like a prime John Fitch, Maia latches himself onto an opponent and uses trips to drag his opponents to the mat. He’s got one of the best top games in the business, staying chest-to-chest with foes to keep them stifled on the ground. From there, he inches into different chokes and locks.
So can Martin do what Gunnar Nelson, Neli Magny and Jorge Masvidal couldn’t? It’s certainly possible, as Maia is 41 and has looked his age against younger guys. At 29, Martin is in his athletic prime and is quicker, more agile fighter. Of course, speed doesn’t matter if you’re on your back the entire time.
UFC Odds Pick: Martin to win at +159
This is a risky pick, but we like the price here. Martin showed good counterwrestling against a powerful Jake Matthews, and Maia’s age and predictability hurts him here. We recommend taking Martin as a ‘dog, but this is one of those fights where you’ll really want to utilize live UFC betting. If Maia is able to get the takedown and control the first round, hedge your bets by taking him to win by decision.
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