Bantamweight contender Jimmie Rivera (22-2, 4 KOs, 2 SUBs) will meet No. 7 Aljamain Sterling (16-3, 2 KOs 7 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN 1 on Sunday, February 17, 2019 at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. The main card airs live on ESPN starting 9 pm ET.
No. 5 bantamweight Jimmie Rivera was arguably one win away from a title shot. Then, he ran into Marlon Moraes last June and was flattened by a head kick and finished in less than 40 seconds. The loss snapped a 20-fight win streak that included victories over Thomas Almeida, Urijah Faber and Pedro Munhoz.
“El Terror” bounced back with a win over John Dodson, and continues his climb back into title contention this Saturday with a matchup against Aljamain Sterling. Coming in with back-to-back wins, Sterling was also recently on the wrong end of a sensational knockout courtesy of Marlon Moraes. Though “The Funk Master” has been a slight disappointment since joining the UFC has an undefeated prospect, Sterling has carved out a role as a high-level gatekeeper - and at 29 years old he still has enough time to evolve and make a title run.
Coincidentally, both men last fought at UFC 228, with Sterling nabbing a kneebar sub over Cody Stamann, and Rivera collecting a unanimous decision against Dodson.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Rivera as a clear favorite, which gives Sterling a tempting price on the comeback. Let’s break down the matchup and get into your best online betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Aljamain Sterling +130
Jimmie Rivera -180
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -300 / +220
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Sterling 4.44 / Rivera 3.89
Accuracy: Sterling 42% / Rivera 49%
Absorbed per minute: Sterling 3.35 / Rivera 1.43
Defense: Sterling 63% / Rivera 68%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Sterling 0.97 / Rivera 2.33
Takedown accuracy: Sterling 27% / Rivera 36%
Takedown defense: Sterling 100% / Rivera 51%
Submission average: Sterling 0 / Rivera 1
Bet this fight at BookMaker.eu
While both Rivera and Sterling are in the upper tier of the division, neither is a particularly fan-friendly fighter. Sterling has finishes in just over half of his pro fights, but has never been a flashy fighter. His long-range kicking game isn’t enough to reliably win fights, and he’s not a good enough wrestler to take advantage of his elite grappling technique.
Still, let’s not forget that Sterling was supposed to be a title contender sooner than later. The physical gifts and general talent is there. More importantly, he seems to be putting together a more well-rounded game and settling in as a fighter.
Rivera is an excellent technical boxer, usually waiting for opponents to lead so he can slip and rip. A short, stocky fighter, Rivera operates inside the pocket, crowding opponents and forcing them to make mistakes. Of course, that means he’s perpetually there to be hit - while his defense is above average, we have seen him rocked on a few occasions.
The key here is how well Sterling deals with the pressure. Three inches taller with a narrower frame, Sterling is most comfortable potshotting from the outside. There will be a clear area where he’ll be able to tag Rivera and stay out of range, but the question is whether he can maintain it.
UFC Odds Pick: Sterling to win at +130
This is about the value. At this price, Sterling is too good for us to pass up. While Rivera’s aggression will cause some problems, he won’t be able to take down The Funk Master. That should force him to chase while Sterling snipes away. In a three-round fight, Sterling should be able to do enough to take the decision.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on ESPN 1 takes place on Sunday, February 17, 2019 at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. The main card airs live on ESPN starting 9 pm ET.
