No. 8 middleweight Derek Brunson (18-7, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs) meets No. 14 Elias Theodorou (16-2, 5 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 8 on Saturday, May 4, 2019 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Canada.
It’s now or never for Elias Theodorou. The 30-year old Canadian has been a “prospect” for what seems like forever now - a guy who we’ve been waiting to break through for a while now. This Saturday, Theodorou gets a chance to earn the biggest win of his career - and “The Spartan” will be carrying the crowd in his native Ontario.
Though Theodorou has racked up an impressive 8-2 record, he has yet to compile a signature win. The fact that both his losses came against upper tier guys in Thiago Santos and Brad Tavares suggests that he has a clear ceiling. His matchup with Derek Brunson could be his final chance to prove that the Canadian could become an actual player at 185 pounds. Racking up win streaks against the middle class is nice, but at some point Theodorou has to prove it against better competition.
Brunson comes into the bout with two straight losses - both first-round knockouts. But consider his opponents: perennial contender Ronaldo Souza and interim champion Israel Adesanya. The fact that he was so easily beaten can be held against him, but to even be put into the cage against them in the first place says a lot. Though he might be a gatekeeper, beating Brunson means something.
This should be a very competitive matchup, which the UFC odds at BookMaker reflect. Let’s break down the matchup along with your best betting picks. Live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is also available to hedge your bets between rounds.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Elias Theodorou -120
Derek Brunson -110
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -185
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Brunson 3.12 / Theodorou 4.17
Accuracy: Brunson 42% / Theodorou 42%
Absorbed per minute: Brunson 3.04 / Theodorou 2.24
Defense: Brunson 50% / Theodorou 54%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Brunson 2.35 / Theodorou 1.4
Takedown accuracy: Brunson 24% / Theodorou 28%
Takedown defense: Brunson 100% / Theodorou 60%
Submission average: Brunson 0.54 / Theodorou 0
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Brunson is a wrestler who turned into a brawler for a while, but he has finally seemed to find a style that makes the most of both his ability to take guys down and his craving to blitz dudes with knockout punches. Unfortunately, neither of his two best skills are enough to put him on the elite level, but it’s more than enough to separate himself from the middle class.
Theodorou might have amazing hair and a pretty face, but his game is anything but good looking. A grinder who lives to break foes down through the clinch, the Canadian consistently wins ugly. His last matchup against Eryk Anders is the perfect example: Theodorou forced a grueling battle that resulted in a split decision win. When striking, his awkward kicking game can catch guys off guard, but he will never be a knockout threat.
This matchup figures to be an ugly one, with Theodorou forcing things into the fence. The question is how Brunson handles a drawn out affair - he has the tools and skillset to win that type of physical battle, but isn’t the most patient guy. Brunson does have a trump card in his knockout power, but Theodorou has never been finished in 18 fights.
UFC Odds Pick: Theodorou to win at -110
While Brunson is the more physically talented fighter, we like Theodorou’s consistency just a bit more. The Canadian might have some trouble to begin with, but he should be able to grind down his opponent and walk away with yet another close decision win.
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC takes place on ESPN+ 8 on Saturday, May 4, 2019 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Canada.
