Featherweight veteran Cub Swanson (25-10, 11 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet prospect Shane Burgos (4 KOs, 5 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 8 on Saturday, May 4, 2019 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Canada.
Cub Swanson might be down, but is he out? That’s what we’ll find out this Saturday, as the longtime vet will look to snap a three-fight win streak that has bounced him out of the 145-pound elite. Of course, we can’t really hate on Cub for losing to Brian Ortega, Frankie Edgar and Moicano Carneiro, but at 35 it’s only going to get tougher for the Palm Springs native get to the contender tier where he resided for so long.
Hoping to use Cub’s name as a stepping stone is Shane Burgos, an 11-1 prospect with a 4-1 UFC record. His only loss came against Calvin Kattar, a blue chip prospect in his own right, but Burgos has since righted the ship with a win over Kurt Holobaugh this past November at UFC 230. For Burgos, this is a chance to pick up a signature win against a guy whose been in the cage with pretty much every elite featherweight and then some.
Aesthetically, this fight should be a fun one for the fans. Swanson’s awkward style has consistently produced memorable fights, and in Burgos he has an opponent that should be willing to oblige him in a slugfest. Burgos is a highly aggressive fighter who never stops throwing, and the dude hits hard. But we’ve seen Cub fell free swingers before (RIP Doo Ho Choi), and this is a prime spot for the veteran to keep his name relevant.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting is also available to hedge your bets between rounds.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cub Swanson +135
Shane Burgos -170
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -140 / +100
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Swanson 4.16 / Burgos 6.54
Accuracy: Swanson 49% / Burgos 46%
Absorbed per minute: Swanson 3.28 / Burgos 5.47
Defense: Swanson 62% Burgos 66%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Swanson 1.17 / Burgos 0.55
Takedown accuracy: Swanson 60% / Burgos 100%
Takedown defense: Swanson 60% / Burgos 94%
Submission average: Swanson 0.51 / Burgos 0.27
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You can get a sense for what kind of fighter Burgos is through his FightMetric stats. The man lands an insane 6.54 significant strikes per minute - which is higher than the pace set by champion Max Holloway. Of course, the downside of being such a high pressure fighter is that he gets hit just as often. While a high pace is nice, mastery of head movement and angles is needed to reach the next level of the game.
In fact, he could probably take a lesson or two in head movement from Swanson. The 35-year old is perpetually swaying his upper body, at times leaning all the way back or bending forward while launching shots in his awkward rhythm. One of the more creative fighters in the division, Swanson can be difficult to predict and even harder to time - which makes him such a challenge for guys who don’t have a wealth of experience to draw from.
A few years ago, the thought of Burgos facing Swanson would seem ridiculously lopsided, but Swanson’s recent fights show that he’s squarely on the downslope of his career. While Burgos rarely shoots for takedowns, it would serve him well against an aging fighter. However, that goes against Burgos natural swarming style, and it’s doubtful that he’ll switch it up here.
UFC Odds Pick: Swanson to win at +135
Admittedly, this might be a fight you want to stay from entirely, but we lean on Swanson’s experience here. He can throw things that Burgos has never seen, and is right at home in a knockdown slugfest.
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC takes place on ESPN+ 8 on Saturday, May 4, 2019 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Canada.
