Former featherweight Renato Moicano (13-3, 6 SUBs) will move up in weight to meet Damir Hadzovic (13-5, 7 KOs, 3 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 28 on Saturday, March 14 at the Nilson Nelson Gymnasium in Brasilia, Brazil. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 5pm ET.
It only took two straight losses to convince Renato Moicano to test out new waters. A former featherweight contender, the Brazilian suffered back-to-back knockouts to Jose Aldo and The Korean Zombie last year - 2019 was not a great year for a fighter that was creeping into the title picture.
Although there’s no shame in losing to a top 3 guy in Jung and the 145-pound GOAT in Aldo, the slide did knock Moicano out of title contention. Moicano is obviously hoping that moving up in weight will help his career. This Saturday, the Brazilian meets “The Bosnian Bomber” Damir Hadzovic. It’s not an easy fight, but it’s obviously one that seems designed to give Carneiro a smooth transition to 155. In a shark-infested division, he’ll need all the help he can get.
Hadzovic has made six UFC appearances, breaking even with a 3-3 record. There’s nothing in his background that really sticks out - a win over Marcin Held is probably his best win. Losses to Christos Giagos, Alan Silva Alves and Mairbek Taisumov suggest the Bosnian is no more than just a mid-card fighter at best. Beating Moicano would easily be the biggest win of his career.
Though the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Moicano as a clear favorite, this is a dangerous fight for him: a loss would pretty much end his lightweight career before it even begins. Let’s break down the matchup along and get to the best UFC bets to make in the online sportsbook.
Renato Carneiro -303
Damir Hadzovic +230
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -180 / +140
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Carneiro 5.53 / Hadzovic 3.42
Striking accuracy: Carneiro 46% / Hadzovic 48%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Carneiro 3.69 / Hadzovic 2.97
Striking defense: Carneiro 66% / Hadzovic 68%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Carneiro 1.16 / Hadzovic 0.59
Takedown accuracy: Carneiro 54% / Hadzovic 50%
Takedown defense: Carneiro 75% / Hadzovic 31%
Submission average: Carneiro 0.39 / Hadzovic 0.29
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Hadzovic has steadily improved since being thrown into the fire against Taisumov. While he’s still an action fighter at heart - and an entertaining one at that - the Bosnian can be patient and pick apart opponents, but he’s also shown the ability to be an offensive wrestler as well. Unfortunately, Hadzovic really doesn’t have the physical talent or the elite skill to significantly raise his ceiling. Opponents do have to respect his power though - Hadzovic has 7 KOs in 13 career victories.
The fact that Moicano was recently a top 5 featherweight says a lot - it’s a loaded weight class. Though he was seen as a grappling specialist as a prospect, the 30-year old has really leaned on his striking skills to find success inside the octagon. It was a close win over Jeremy Stephens that really showed the community that he could beat a veteran striker to the punch, and he nearly beat Brian Ortega in the followup before getting subbed late. To date, he’s only lost to top-level fighters with elite skills, having been outstruck by Jose Aldo and blown out by the explosive Korean Zombie.
Talentwise, the scales are tipped in Moicano’s favor. The question is whether he can handle the physicality of a bigger weight class. The Brazilian is not a big lightweight, and it doesn’t look good that he was knocked out twice before jumping up in weight. But there has been a recent flux of guys finding success by moving up a division, and Moicano at least projects as a top 15 guy.
UFC Odds Pick: Carneiro to win at -303
Like we noted earlier, Hadzovic seems picked to give Moicano a boost in his new weight class. Carneiro’s takedown defense and grappling should neutralize Hadzovic’s wrestling threat, and the Brazilian is easily the more technical striker. Expect Moicano to start pulling away from round two and take a clear decision.
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