Light heavyweight prospect Johnny Walker (17-4, 14 KOs, 2 SUBs) will meet Nikita Krylov (26-7, 11 KOs, 15 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 28 on Saturday, March 14 at the Nilson Nelson Gymnasium in Brasilia, Brazil. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 5pm ET.
Johnny Walker looks like a star, acts like a star and has the charisma of a star. But can he fight like one? It sure looked like he could in his first three UFC fights - three spectacular first round knockouts. But his meteoric rise was stopped short in his last outing, when Corey Anderson TKO’d the big Brazilian inside of a round.
This Saturday, Walker takes a step back and meets a fellow prospect in Nikita Krylov. This fight should tell us a lot about the Brazilian’s ceiling, as Krylov is a solid top 15 guy at 27 years old. The Ukrainian has lost two of his past three, but one was a contentious split decision loss to the veteran Glover Teixeira and the other a tapout to current title contender Jan Blachowicz. Before voluntarily leaving the UFC for FNG in 2017, Krylov was seen as one of the top young up-and-comers at 205.
Prior to the loss to Anderson, Walker was on a fast track to a title shot. With that hype bubble popped, it’s time to reassess how good he can be. If he wants to be seriously considered a future contender, he needs to be beating guys like Krylov. What’s more, to recapture some of the crazy amounts of buzz he was getting, he’s got to earn some style points at the same time - that was a big part of his appeal. A competitive UD won’t do much for Walker.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Walker as a solid favorite, though this is definitely a dangerous matchup to bet on. Let’s take a look at the online sportsbook and break down your best values.
Johnny Walker -155
Nikita Krylov +124
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +280 / -400
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Walker 7.5 / Krylov 4.86
Striking accuracy: Walker 77% / Krylov 57%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Walker 20.71 / Krylov 2.45
Striking defense: Walker 29% / Krylov 44%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Walker 0 / Krylov 1.06
Takedown accuracy: Walker N/A / Krylov 38%
Takedown defense: Walker 100% / Krylov 52%
Submission average: Walker 0 / Krylov 1.9
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Krylov certainly has time to keep evolving as a fighter, but we’ve got a pretty good sense of who he is: a wild, aggressive swinger and an excellent submission grappler. For every thing that he does well, there is a flaw that’s just as gaping. Examples: Krylov has knockout power, but will often completely ignore his striking defense chasing the killshot. Krylov has got some great submissions, but his own takedown defense is pretty questionable. There are times where he looks like the next big thing, but in the same fight he looks like a prelims guy.
Walker is even more polarizing. There are some things to be ecstatic about: he’s a ripped 6’5” and an amazing athlete - the 27-year old’s UFC finishes come by way of elbow, spinning backfist and flying knee, which is just awesome. But the moment an athletic puncher started brawling back, Walker crumbled. If his chin is compromised, that’s a hard cap on his ceiling. We haven’t even seen a glimpse of his ground game yet as he keeps getting matched up with strikers. On top of that, Walker has yet to make it past the first round inside the octagon, so who knows how good his cardio is.
But it’s tough to deny the tantalizing appeal of JW: he has all the physical tools and some of the requisite skills to be an all-out monster. It’s up to his camp to mold him into a fully controlled, well-rounded monster. The first test is whether he can adjust against Krylov if the quick knockout doesn’t come.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight doesn’t go to decision -400
Apologies for taking the easy way out. If Krylov was close to +175 or Walker was at even money, we’d jump all over either of those betting lines. But for all his potential, Walker is just too unpredictable to make a call here. This prop is expensive, but use it as a parlay booster. Krylov has only been to decision once in 33 fights, and Walker has fought to the cards just once in 21 pro MMA appearances.
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