Welterweight grappling legend Demian Maia (28-9, 3 KOs, 14 SUBs) will meet the surging Gilbert Burns (17-3, 5 KOs, 8 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 28 on Saturday, March 14 at the Nilson Nelson Gymnasium in Brasilia, Brazil. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 5pm ET.
There might not be another fighter that’s aging as gracefully as Demian Maia. The 42-year old has bounced back from a trio of high-profile losses with a three-fight winning streak that culminated in a submission win over Ben Askren in his last outing. He might not be a championship contender anymore, but Maia is still one of the most important 170-pounders on the roster.
This Saturday, the ageless wonder plays his familiar gatekeeper role against fellow Brazilian Gilbert Burns. Nearly a decade younger than his opponent, Burns has reeled off a four straight wins, a run that includes a move up to welterweight. His last contest was a particularly impressive win over the well-regarded Gunnar Nelson. Still, going from Nelson to a fighter like Maia is a huge jump.
In case you forgot, the last three guys to beat Maia either were champions or went on to fight for the title. He’s the guy you have to beat to get to the guy holding a belt. Burns has a huge opportunity to earn a matchup against a top 5 opponent.
You might be surprised to find that the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Burns nearly a 2-1 favorite at -190. That seems like disrespect to Maia, who was given +165 on the comeback. Let’s break down the matchup, take a look at the online sportsbook and get to your best UFC betting picks.
Demian Maia +168
Gilbert Burns -210
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -175 / +135
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Maia 1.82 / Burns 3.22
Striking accuracy: Maia 43% / Burns 44%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Maia 2.01 / Burns 3.25
Striking defense: Maia 63% / Burns 57%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Maia 2.49 / Burns 2.6
Takedown accuracy: Maia 25% / Burns 39%
Takedown defense: Maia 61% / Burns 42%
Submission average: Maia 1.03 / Burns 0.71
Bet this UFC fight at the online sportsbook
This should be an awesome matchup between two extremely high-level grapplers. Maia is on every fighter’s list of best submission artists ever, currently holding the record for most submissions in the division. Burns actually had trouble finding opponents because of his fearsome reputation on the mats. It’s not often that BJJ artists of this caliber meet inside the octagon.
Of course, there’s a very real possibility that their skills cancel each other out and they’re forced to kickbox. If that’s the case, then you’ve got to lean heavily on Burns. Maia is as one-dimensional as they come, and he gets tuned up if he’s forced to stand with anyone that’s got some competence in kickboxing. Burns used to be a similar fighter, but he’s actually developed a decent power striking game. That alone should be enough to give him the edge on the feet.
UFC Odds Pick: Burns to win at -210
It’s really tough to bet against Maia, who is usually able to grind down anyone who is not an elite wrestler. Burns isn’t a wrestler like Kamaru Usman, but he has the same level of comfort on the ground. Being a decade younger helps, as he should be the more active fighter. Having the edge in striking is the icing on the cake, making Burns the obvious pick.
Live UFC Betting Watch: Maia’s takedowns
Keep a very close eye on the first few minutes. If Maia is able to land the takedown and hold top control early, hammer his live betting lines. As a grinder, takedowns only get easier for Maia as the fight wears on. Considering he’ll start the fight as an underdog, it’s a great chance to take advantage of the live UFC betting at the online sportsbook.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
