No. 6 lightweight Paul Felder (17-4, 10 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet rising New Zealander Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (19-8, 10 KOs, 7 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 26 on Saturday, February 22 at the Spark Arena in Auckland, New Zealand. The card streams live starting 7pm ET.
Dan Hooker is getting the biggest opportunity of his career in his own backyard. The New Zealand native headlines this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in Auckland - the city where he was born, raised and currently trains. Hoping to spoil the homecoming is Paul Felder - a legit killer who has inched his way into the edges of the title mix.
After an up-and-down run at 145 pounds, Hooker returned to lightweight in 2017 and promptly reeled off four straight wins - beating solid vets like Ross Pearson, Jim Miller and Gilbert Burns. The streak earned him a matchup against perennial contender Edson Barboza, who hammered Hooker’s body so hard that the Kiwi could barely stand straight. He’s since bounced back nicely, with consecutive wins over James Vick and Al Iaquinta.
Felder has won five straight lightweight bouts, with a loss as a late notice replacement in a welterweight contest with Mike Perry. Most recently, “The Irish Dragon” eked out a split decision win against Barboza - something that’s pretty much a requirement for any would-be title contender. A victory over Hooker would put him on an 8-2 run and secure a matchup against a legit title contender.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Hooker as a slight -132 favorite, with Felder at +115 on the comeback. But let’s take a look at the online sportsbook and break down your best betting values. Live UFC betting is available during the fight, with real-time line updates.
Dan Hooker -145
Paul Felder +115
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +125 / -165
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Felder 3.53 / Hooker 4.35
Striking accuracy: Felder 43% / Hooker 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Felder 3.08 / Hooker 5.13
Striking defense: Felder 50% / Hooker 54%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Felder 0.32 / Hooker 0.47
Takedown accuracy: Felder 33% / Hooker 37%
Takedown defense: Felder 59% / Hooker 77%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Felder 0.32 / Hooker 0.47
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Felder may have reached his athletic ceiling, but he is still elevating his game by continually adding layers. From middling fighter to brawler to spinning specialist, Felder has come a long way. His work as a color commentator seems to have upped his ring IQ, as the 34-year old has an inherent sense of whether he’s winning or losing and ups his aggression as needed. At the end of the day, Felder is an excellent striker, a dangerous clinch fighter, and well-rounded enough to impose wildy diverse game plans.
Hooker actually seems to be following the same path as his opponent. At first, it seemed as if he’d just be a guy the UFC would wheel out whenever the promotion made a trip to the Oceania region. But the 29-year old has evolved into an aggressive pressure striker who has the power to beat opponents into submission. His lack of athleticism was exposed by Barboza, but Felder isn’t explosive enough to beat him in the same manner.
What we’ve got is two aggressive dudes that do their best work coming forward - neither is particularly effective backpedaling. Hooker is younger, bigger and stronger, Felder has more experience against higher level competition. There’s a reason that the odds are so competitive here - this is truly anyone’s fight.
UFC Odds Pick: Felder to win at +115
We like Felder’s value as a slight underdog. He figures out different ways to win - whether it’s leg kicks against James Vick, clinching against Charles Oliveira or going for broke against Barboza. Hooker is more reliant on imposing his style, and the inability to make adjustments will work against him in a five round fight. While this should be an extremely competitive matchup, Felder will do enough to take a decision.
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