Former light heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (26-11, 21 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet veteran Sam Alvey (33-13, 19 KOs, 3 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 22 on Saturday, November 16, 2019 at the Ibarapuero Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The card streams live on ESPN+ at 5pm ET.
It’s been nearly a year since we’ve seen the legendary Shogun Rua in action. But this Saturday, the former light heavyweight champion returns to Brazil to late notice opponent Paul Craig.
While beating Craig doesn’t mean much in the light heavyweight division, this is an important fight for Shogun. At 37, he’s a Hall of Famer on his last legs. Somehow, the creaky Brazilian has managed to put together a 4-1 run, most recently scoring an impressive TKO win over prospect Tyson Pedro. Prior to that, managed to knock out Gian Villante and somehow scored a split decision over the younger Corey Anderson.
It’s clear that Shogun still has something left to offer, but it’s obvious that he’s far past his prime - to the point where any loss brings up the “should he retire” questions. Even when he does win, Shogun only manages to squeak by against mid-level fighters. Anthony Smith is the one legitimate contender he’s faced in the past five years, and Shogun was quickly smashed in just a minute and a half.
Craig, if anything, is being brought in to give Shogun a win on home soil. The 31-year old has a .500 record in the UFC, but is coming off a win over Vinicius Castro. A fringe roster fighter at best, Craig at least has an aggressive style which should make for a fun fight.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down our UFC betting picks. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook is available to make bets during the fight - we update money lines in real-time.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mauricio Rua -275
Paul Craig +211
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +190 / -270
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Rua 3.51 / Craig 1.91
Striking accuracy: Rua 52% / Craig 44%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Rua 4.13 / Craig 2.82
Striking defense: Rua 55% / Craig 45%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minute: Rua 1.74 / Craig 1.74
Takedown accuracy: Rua 42% / Craig 19%
Takedown defense: Rua 46% / Craig 50%
Submission average: Rua 0.29 / Craig 1.49
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Craig has yet to put together a winning streak inside the octagon, despite making eight appearances under the UFC banner. His only wins have come against unknown fighters, and against mid-tier fighters with any sort of promise he’s been beaten - with all of his losses coming by some sort of stoppage. He can be described as an unathletic grappling specialist how earns his victory by hanging around and diving on opportunistic finishes.
What “the Bearjew” has going for him is that he’s younger and springier than Rua. He’s got a solid gas tank too, which is a huge factor against somebody who gases so quickly. However, he doesn’t have much of a striking game to speak of, and even now it’s hard to overpower Shogun.
The UFC never really got the Pride version of Rua. Even in his first fight against Forrest Griffin, the Brazilian appeared to have suddenly aged. While we saw flashes of the killer that decimated the Japanese promotion, the 37-year old’s time in the octagon has been marred with cardio issues and an obviously cracked chin. What’s clear is that he still has some pop to his strikes, though it’s getting harder and harder to land a killshot.
UFC Odds Pick: Craig to win at +211
This is honestly more a pick against Rua than it is an endorsement of Craig. We really don’t know which version of Shogun will show up, and if the Scotsman can maintain a high pace he has a great chance at pulling off an upset here. We don’t recommend a sizeable bet, but Craig is definitely a live ‘dog here.
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