Lightweight submission specialist Charles Oliveira (27-8, 7 KO, 18 SUBs) will meet New Yorker Jared Gordon (15-3, 6 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 22 on Saturday, November 16, 2019 at the Ibarapuero Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The card streams live on ESPN+ at 5pm ET.
The fact that Charles Oliveira is ranked only No. 13 at 155 pounds speaks to how loaded the lightweight division is. On a pure talent basis, the Brazilian is a beast - an athletic marvel with a killer submission game and a flashy striking style.
However, “Do Bronx” has failed every time he’s stepped up to face a contender, whether it’s at 145 or 155. A quick glance at his record shows that all of his losses have come against the names you’d recognize: Donald Cerrone, Cub Swanson, Frankie Edgar, Max Holloway, Anthony Pettis, Ricardo Lamas, Paul Felder. Of course, the fact that he was tabbed to face those guys to begin with says a lot. Still, in 24 UFC fights, Oliveira’s biggest win came against Jeremy Stephens back in 2014.
This Saturday, Oliveira will look to extend a five-fight winning streak in his native Brazil against Jared Gordon. Oliveira probably deserves a bigger name at this point, as Gordon is the type of fighter he’s been feasting on during his run. Just 1-2 in his past three fights, Gordon will look to build on a win against Dan Moret this past June.
Obviously, losing to a mid-tier fighter like Gordon would be disastrous for Oliveira’s career. He kicked off his lightweight run with a loss to Paul Felder, and he’s been trying to make up for it ever since. But should Oliveira win his sixth straight, it’d be really hard to deny him a top 10 fighter the next time out.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best online betting picks. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook lets you make wagers during the fight as well with real-time line updates.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.ue
Charles Oliveira -370
Jared Gordon +273
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +100 / -270
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Oliveira 3.18 / Gordon 7.48
Striking accuracy: Oliveira 50% / Gordon 53%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Oliveira 3.01/ Gordon 4.41
Striking defense: Oliveira 54% / Gordon 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Oliveira 2.8 / Gordon 3.46
Takedown accuracy: Oliveira 43% / Gordon 40%
Takedown defense: Oliveira 58% / Gordon 75%
Submission average: Oliveira 2.8 / Gordon 0
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The UFC had big hopes for Gordon, and it’s easy to see why: not only was he an exciting fighter with a durable chin, the 31-year old had a compelling life story battling back from drug addiction and coming up through the Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu ranks. However, a good run in 2017 was quickly erased when was knocked out by Diego Ferriera and outlasted by Joaquim Silva in 2018.
Still, Gordon is a lot of fun to watch: he never stops pressuring and lands an insane 7.48 strikes per 15 minutes. While that type of aggression works against UFC fringe fighters, it has failed spectacularly against even the mid-caliber fighters at lightweight. However, his last fight against Dan Moret showed some evolution as Gordon willingly used takedowns and GNP to beat a deficient grappler.
Of course, that won’t work against Oliveira, who is an excellent submission grappler. The problem with Oliveira has never been talent, but grit. He’s been the clearly more skilled fighter in many of his matchups, but he tends to crumble quickly when things don’t go his way. He seems to have developed a better sense of hanging tough, but there’s always the risk that he falls back into old habits.
UFC Odds Pick: Oliveira to win at -370
This isn’t an easy pick, since there have been numerous times where it looked like Oliveira had turned the corner, only to lose in a big spot. However, the Brazilian’s growth in the past year suggests that he is better equipped mentally to handle a charger like Gordon. While there’s a risk that Gordon grinds Oliveira down, it’s more likely that the Brazilian’s athleticism and skill separates him from his opponent.
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