Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist Mackenzie Dern (7-0, 4 SUBs) will meet Brazil’s Amanda Ribas (7-1, 3 KOs, 3 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 19 on Saturday, October 12, 2019 at the Amalie Center in Tampa, Florida. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 5pm ET.
Mackenzie Dern is back from maternity leave. The 7-0 prospect will look to preserve her flawless record this Saturday when she meets Brazil’s Amanda Ribas in Tampa.
Though Dern has compiled a 2-0 record inside the octagon, her massive hype as one of the most decorated female grapplers of all time preceded her. Some even dubbed her “The Next Ronda Rousey”, but expectations were soon lowered as she struggled mightily in her UFC debut against Ashley Yoder, barely eking out a split decision against a fringe fighter. The 26-year old looked better in her followup, submitting Amanda Cooper - but announced she was pregnant shortly afterward.
It’ll be interesting to see if Dern has improved since her time away, as it looked like she had a long ways to go to be considered a contender. Her opponent, Ribas, is certainly the type of unknown opponent that a blue chip prospect should excel against. The 26-year old Brazilian compiled a 6-1 record in regional competition, and secured a victory in her UFC debut with a submission over Emily Whitmire.
This is a dangerous matchup for Dern - a loss to Ribas would bring on all sorts of premature “bust” conversations. Let’s break down the numbers and get into your best online betting options with the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu. As always, live UFC betting at the online sportsbook will be available to make wagers during the fight with real-time line updates.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mackenzie Dern -125
Amanda Ribas -105
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -105 / -135
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Dern 4.87 / Ribas 2.93
Striking accuracy: Dern 48% / Ribas 51%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Dern 3.32 / Ribas 0.98
Striking defense: Dern 65% / Ribas 72%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Dern 0.86 / Ribas 4.19
Takedown accuracy: Dern 16% / Ribas 40%
Takedown defense: Dern - / Ribas -
Submission average: Dern 1.72 / Ribas 4.19
Bet this UFC fight at the online sportsbook
The first question we have to ask is whether Dern will struggle to make weight. While she was able to get to 115 pounds in her UFC debut against Yoder, she weighed in a staggering seven pounds over the 116-pound limit in her followup against Cooper. Usually, fighters miss by a pound or so, but Dern nearly hit the limit for flyweight.
But assuming Dern has no troubles this time around, you’ve got to ask yourself where she’s at in her career. While a congratulations is in order for having a healthy baby daughter, you’ve got to assume that she took months off from training to recover and bond. That gives her about a year to improve on her flaws - and there were definitely a few last time we saw her. Dern’s striking is still far too wild, and she has yet to develop a strong wrestling game to force opponents to grapple with her. On the mat, Dern is as good as advertised: she is a multiple-time ADCC and IBJJF champion after all.
This is an interesting matchup: Ribas is a black belt in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. We can obviously assume that even with her BJJ black belt, she will be a few notches below Dern in that skill. But this is MMA, not a gi tournament - the judo skills are interesting as it should give her a good base to defend against takedowns. The Brazilian was also a takedown machine against a subpar Emily Whitmire, but we’re not sure if she’ll go that route against such an accomplished grappler.
UFC Odds Pick: Ribas to win at -105
Ribas makes for a compelling underdog. Dern’s status as a blue chip prospect is deserved, but she also has not looked like a world-beater in her appearances so far. The Brazilian’s background gives her the tools to neutralize Dern’s strengths, and the striking is a 50-50 proposition as both women just tend to throw haymakers. We’ll take our chances on the payout here.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu now!
