Former strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-3, 4 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet veteran Michelle Waterson (17-6, 3 KOs, 9 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 19 on Saturday, October 12, 2019 at the Amalie Center in Tampa, Florida. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 5pm ET.
Through the first 14 fights of Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s career, the Polish kickboxer was flawless, winning the UFC strawweight title and defending it five times. For nearly two years, it looked like a case where a fighter was lapping her competition. Then she met Thug Rose - losing convincingly in back-to-back fights. A win over Tecia Torres led to a failed flyweight title challenge against Valentina Shevchenko.
Now a loser of three of her past four, J-Check is an extremely interesting position heading into a headlining matchup against Michelle Waterson this Saturday. Namajunas losing the title was probably the best thing that could have happened to her, as she could jump right back into a title shot with a win here. As the only fighter to ever defend the straweight title (the division is still young), Joanna Ex-Champion is still a major player in the weight class.
Waterson has never been closer to a title challenge. Since back-to-back losses to Namajunas and Tecia Torres, the 33-year old has won three straight, most recently picking up an impressive decision over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. It’s been a long road to get here for the former Invicta FC champion, and Waterson deserves credit for gutting it out in a loaded division above her natural weight class of atomweight.
This should be a fun five-rounder, as both girls are excellent strikers. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook lets you make bets on real-time line updates during the fight.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -350
Michelle Waterson +290
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -245 / +175
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Jedrzejczyk 6.07 / Waterson 4.04
Striking accuracy: Jedrzejczyk 46% / Waterson 57%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Jedrzejczyk 2.77 / Waterson 3.76
Striking defense: Jedrzejczyk 65% / Waterson 51%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Jedrzejczyk 0.14 / Waterson 2.15
Takedown accuracy: Jedrzejczyk 66% / Waterson 60%
Takedown defense: Jedrzejczyk 80% / Waterson 62%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Jedrzejczyk 0 / Waterson 1.25
Bet this UFC fight at the online sportsbook
The online oddsmakers opened with Joanna as a huge favorite, as this looks like a matchup that favors her style. Her only losses have come against Namajunas and Shevchenko, two fighters who were both able to use their length, speed and technique to beat J-Check to the punch. Against slower fighters like Kowalkiewicz, Andrade and Gadelha, the former champ was able to stick and move at will.
Waterson is a good striker, but she doesn’t have the range nor quickness to really keep up here. As usual, The Karate Hottie will be the smaller fighter in this matchup, and that will likely be the biggest factor working against her - she simply doesn’t have the tools to follow the same gameplan as other fighters that have beaten Joanna. While Waterson is an excellent scrambler, Gadelha proved that trying to take a cardio machine like Joanna to the mat might be the worst strategy.
UFC Odds Pick: Parlay Jedrzejczyk to win at -485
We usually don’t like to recommend such expensive lines, which is why we suggest taking the former champ as a parlay booster. Waterson doesn’t have the power to test Joanna’s questionable chin, and we honestly don’t see any other viable paths to victory for The Karate Hottie.
UFC Odds Pick: Jedrzejczyk to win by decision -170
Joanna hasn’t stopped anyone since meeting an outgunned Jessica Penne in 2015, and Waterson has only been knocked out once in her career. Joanna’s high-octane offense is based more on volume than power, and she has never shown an attacking mentality when it comes to submissions. This one should go to the cards, with Joanna taking a UD.
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