Featherweight veteran Cub Swanson (25-11, 11 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet undefeated Kron Gracie (5-0, 5 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 19 on Saturday, October 12, 2019 at the Amalie Center in Tampa, Florida. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 5pm ET.
Any MMA fighter bearing the famous Gracie name will always be somebody of interest. Of course, the spotlight will shine a little brighter when you’re Kron Gracie. That’s because he’s the son of Rickson Gracie, who is largely considered the greatest fighter the family ever produced. Hoping to emerge out of his father’s massive shadow, Kron will meet Cub Swanson this Saturday on the main card of UFC on ESPN+ 19 in Tampa.
The UFC must really think highly of Kron, because in most cases it’d be absolute madness to pit a 5-0 fighter against somebody like Cub. A veteran of 22 WEC/UFC fights, Swanson is a guy that’s faced the likes of Jose Aldo, Chad Mendes, Ricardo Lamas, Dustin Poirier, Frankie Edgar, Max Holloway, Doo Ho Choi, Moicano Carneiro and Brian Ortega. The 35-year old has been doing this so long that he’s fought a few of those aforementioned fighters twice, years apart in some cases.
Swanson has fallen on hard times lately, losing four straight. However, we can forgive losses to Ortega, Edgar and Moicano. Most recently, he lost a close split decision to Shane Burgos, suggesting a steep decline might be coming soon for the former title contender.
Gracie is coming off a successful UFC debut, needing just around two minutes to submit veteran Alex Caceres. Prior to that, he notched another submission over the respected Tatsuya Kawajiri in 2016. The 31-year old obviously has elite grappling skills (his father is one of the only men on the planet to hold a red belt in BJJ), but does he have the all-around skills to be a legitimate UFC contender?
Let’s break down the matchup, along with the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu to get to your best betting options. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook lets you make wagers during the fight with real-time line updates.
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Cub Swanson +139
Kron Gracie -175
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +145 / -185
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Swanson 4.16 / Gracie 0.95
Striking accuracy: Swanson 49% / Gracie 20%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Swanson 3.28 / Gracie 1.9
Striking defense: Swanson 62% / Gracie 71%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Swanson 1.17 / Gracie 7.14
Takedown accuracy: Swanson 52% / Gracie 50%
Takedown defense: Swanson 60% / Gracie -
Submission average: Swanson 0.51 / Gracie 7.14
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Like most of the Gracie progeny, Kron’s striking skills lag far behind his grappling. So far, he’s been able to make it work, even without strong offensive wrestling, simply because of his dogged determination drag matchups to the mat. Against Alex Caceres, Gracie attempted over 7 takedowns and landed half of them. You have to believe that he will attempt just as many here, as Swanson is a far more dangerous striker than Caceres.
While this seems like a case of too much, too soon for Gracie, Swanson has some clear vulnerabilities that he can exploit. Of Swanson’s 11 losses, 7 have come by way of submission. The Palm Springs native has a bad habit of leaving his neck unprotected, as his past six submission losses have come by some for of neck choke or crank. The 36-year old’s takedown defense is not airtight by any means, as strong wrestlers have had success forcing him to the mat.
This is a simple match to break down: if Kron gets this to the ground, he should be able to find a way to finish. If he’s forced to strike, Cub’s unorthodox technique will do a lot of damage.
UFC Odds Pick: Gracie to win at -175
Realistically, an extremely one-dimensional fighter like Gracie doesn’t seem like he’d have much success against well-rounded UFC fighters. But Swanson’s physical decline can’t be ignored, nor can his tendency to let his grappling defense drop. While Gracie will have to work, he should be able to snake his way into a neck choke and pull off what will be the biggest win of his career.
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