Denmark’s Nicolas Dalby (17-3, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet Brazil’s Alex Oliveira (19-7, 12 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 18 on Saturday, September 28, 2019 at the Royal Arena in Copenhagen, Denmark. The carid streams live on ESPN+ starting 2pm ET.
Nicolas Dalby flamed out in his first UFC run. Perhaps a return fight in his hometown of Copenhagen will kickstart his second stint in the big show. The 34-year old returns to the octagon after a five-five stint in Cage Warriors in which “Lokomotivo” went 3-1 with 1 No Contest. Brazilian Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira will be waiting in hopes to spoit the party.
From 2015-2016, Dalby compiled a dismal 1-2-1 record in the UFC, winning his debut against Elizeu dos Santos, fighting to a draw against Darren Till, then losing consecutive decisions to Zak Cummings and Peter Sobotta. The Danish fighter then resigned with Cage Warriors, losing to UFC alum Carlo Pedersoli before rebounding with three straight wins against European competition.
Cowboy Oliveira has quietly become one of the more reliably entertaining fighters at 170 pounds, but he comes into the matchup on the heels of two consecutive losses to Gunnar Nelson and Mike Perry. Still, Cowboy has earned wins over Tim Means, Carlos Condit and Will Brooks over a respectable UFC career.
This is a tough matchup for Dalby, but he’ll have a frenzied crowd behind him in what should be a banger. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbooks is always available to make in-play bets as needed.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Nicolas Dalby +137
Alex Oliveira -173
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -105 / -135
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Dalby 3.27 / Oliveira 3.09
Striking accuracy: Dalby 38% / Oliveira 51%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Dalby 3.33 / Oliveira 2.27
Defense: Dalby 55% / Oliveira 44%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Dalby 2 / Oliveira 2.84
Takedown accuracy: Dalby 50% / Oliveira 37%
Takedown defense: Dalby 69% / Oliveira 59%
Submission average: Dalby 0 / Oliveira 0.77
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Did Dalby’s time away help him develop as a fighter? That’s the question here, as his first UFC stint exposed a lack of power that greatly held him back as a fighter. Nobody was afraid of eating a few shots from Dalby, and Zak Cummings shucked off Dalby’s takedowns with ease. The loss to Cummings was especially damaging as wrestling and submissions are the best parts of Dalby’s game.
During his second run in Cage Warriors, Dalby’s high-octane kickboxing was far more effective, as he notched his first knockouts in more than four years - blasting through Philip Mulpeter and Alex Lohore. Unfortunately, those aren’t UFC caliber fighters. Oliveira is without a doubt one of the more physically talented unranked welterweights in the division. There’s a big difference.
What should help Dalby is Oliveira’s inconsistency and lacking fight IQ. The Brazilian is a punisher in terms of striking, but there have been a few times where he’s been soundly outboxed. He’s an excellent athlete with good strength, but we’ve seen smaller opponents with good grappling technique soundly reject his attempts to bully them. But just when you talk yourself into picking against him, you remember how he’s absolutely demolished mid-tier opponents.
UFC Odds Pick: Alex Oliveira to win at -173
We lean on Oliveira based on pure physical talent. Dalby is an excellent grappler, but not a strong enough wrestler to force this to the ground when he needs to. This fight will be decided in the striking ranges and the clinch, and while Dalby can match Oliveira’s output, he can’t match the natural striking power. This should be close, but Cowboy should be able to break out of his two-fight funk. The current price is playable as a straight bet, but if you feel iffy about Cowboy’s chances we recommend taking the decision prop.
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