Light heavyweight prospect Michal “Lord” Oleksiejczuk (14-2, 10 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet veteran gatekeeper Ovince St. Preux (23-13, 11 KOs, 7 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 18 on Saturday, September 28, 2019 at the Royal Arena in Copenhagen, Denmark. The carid streams live on ESPN+ starting 2pm ET.
So far, Polish light heayweight prospect Michal Oleksiejczuk has been as good as advertised in the UFC. The 24-year old has gone 3-0 inside the octagon, and comes into his Saturday matchup with Ovince St. Preux with two straight first-round knockouts of Gian Villante and Gadzhumurad Antigulov.
St. Preux’s stock has fallen sharply over the past few years, but he’s still a recognizable name at 205 pounds. One could probably consider him one of the division’s better known gatekeepers, while Glover Teixeira being the gatekeeper for the elite ranks. A few notable fights went on to become top contenders or challenge for the title on the strength of beating OSP, notably Volkan Oezdemir, Ilir Latifi and Dominick Reyes.
However, at 36 years old and stuck in a 1-3 slump, OSP’s time as high-level light heavyweight is pretty much over. The fact that he’s not even top 15 anymore pretty much confirms it. His name still carries some weight, but losing to a Oleksiejczuk - a good but unknown prospect - would pretty much throw St. Preux into a hole that would require a hefty winning streak to dig out of.
Still, beating OSP means something - especially for a young up-and-comer like Oleksiejczuk. Should he win in impressive fashion, a fight against a top-12 light heavyweight would probably be in line. Let’s break down the matchup and look into the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu for your best betting option. Live UFC betting is available at the online sportsbook for in-play bets as needed.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michal Oleksiejczuk -210
Ovince St. Preux +165
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +265 / -385
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Oleksiejczuk 5.43 / St. Preux 2.6
Striking accuracy: Oleksiejczuk 59% / St. Preux 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Oleksiejczuk 3.68 / St. Preux 3.95
Striking defense: Oleksiejczuk 69% / St. Preux 3.95
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Oleksiejczuk 1.81 / St. Preux 0.88
Takedown accuracy: Oleksiejczuk 66% / St. Preux 29%
Takedown defense: Oleksiejczuk - / St. Pruex 66%
Submission average: Oleksiejczuk 0 / St. Preux 0.44
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It’s still tough to really figure out what the UFC has in Oleksiejczuk. His record prior to joining the big show was impressive, but most of his pre-fight tape consisted of him falling behind against regional competition, only to stage comeback KOs after his opponents tired out. That was exactly the case in his UFC debut, when he weathered a brutal early storm from Khalil Rountree before turning the tide and winning on points (the decision was later overtuned due to a failed drug test).
But the Pole’s two followups, he notched quick knockouts of Villante and Antigulov - the former a big, heavy hitter and the latter a pressuring wrestler. Those victories suggested that Oleksiejczuk could go beyond the Homer Simpson style of playing punching bag for guys to tire themselves out. His aggressive kickboxing style is fun to watch, as he presses a high output and backs his strikes up with legit knockout power.
St. Preux’s decline has been steady. A few years ago, he would have the random fight where he’d gas early or just look hesitant to pull the trigger. Now, those occurrences are much more common, though OSP’s size, power and athleticism still makes him dangerous in spurts. While not a volume striker, he has killshot power in his kicks, and his surprising flexibility makes him a dangerous submission grappler. Unfortunately, he never supported the best parts of his game with the skills to become a truly elite fighter - though he had all the tools.
UFC Odds Pick: Oleksiejzuk to win at -210
This is more a pick against OSP than a pick for the Pole. More than 10 years younger than OSP, Oleksiejczuk’s youth and pace alone should be enough to prevail over a shopworn fighter. If you’re looking for a better payout, we suggest going with a KO victory bet or an inside the distance prop. If you’re looking to play it safe, Oleksiejczuk to win straight up is certainly an affordable price.
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