No. 5 middleweight Jack Hermansson (20-4, 11 KOs, 5 SUBs) will meet No. 9 Jared Cannonier (12-4, 8 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 18 on Saturday, September 28, 2019 at the Royal Arena in Copenhagen, Denmark. The carid streams live on ESPN+ starting 2pm ET.
Jack Hermansson might be the most lowkey title contender in the middleweight division. Despite a four-fight winning streak that includes wins over David Branch and Ronaldo Souza, nobody is talking about the Swede as a possible challenger for the middleweight belt. Life is tough when you’re a good fighter without a big personality or massive hype.
His matchup against the unheralded Jared Cannonier this Saturday might be a headlining fight, but it’s also a step back for Hermansson. You’d think after beating a perennial contender like Souza, Hermansson would be fighting the Kelvin Gastelums or the Chris Weidmans of the division. While Cannonier is no scrub - he’s currently ranked No. 9 at middleweight - “The Killa Gorilla” isn’t a victory that carries a lot of weight in the division.
That might be unfair to Cannonier, who has won two straight against Branch and Anderson Silva. The win over Silva puts a big feather in his cap, but there was a fluky quality to it as the legendary Brazilian suffered a huge leg injury after eating a leg kick by Cannonier.
This is a high-risk, low-reward fight for Hermansson, who could be knocked out of contention entirely with a loss to Cannonier. Conversely, Cannonier has the opportunity to get the biggest win of his career and jump into the top five. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook is available during each of the fights as needed.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jack Hermansson -252
Jared Cannonier +195
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +315 / -445
Significant Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Hermansson 4.9 / Cannonier 3.62
Striking accuracy: Hermansson 56% / Cannonier 51%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Hermansson 1.77 / Cannonier 2.76
Striking defense: Hermansson 64% / Cannonier 67%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Hermansson 2.38 / Cannonier 0.2
Takedown accuracy: Hermansson 47% / Cannonier 33%
Takedown defense: Hermansson 73% / Cannonnier 44%
Submission average: Hermansson 0.89 / Cannonier 0
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Hermansson will be the big crowd favorite, as he lobbied for a spot on the Copenhagen card because of it’s close proximity to his native Sweden. His rise to the top of the middleweight division has been swift, but his win over Souza proved that he’s a player in the title mix. In that matchup, Hermansson poured on the striking volume against a powerful puncher, and wasn’t afraid to go to the ground against a decorated grappler.
His development coincides with his level up in his all-around abilities. Making his UFC debut in 2016, the 31-year old seemed nothing more than a fun brawler, but since then he’s evolved into an excellent submission specialist. He has the quickness and athleticism for opportunistic takedowns, making up for a lack of wrestling technique.
Cannonier presents an interesting style matchup. The 35-year old started his UFC career as a heavyweight and worked himself into better shape. At light heavyweight, his lack of technical ability in several areas (namely grappling and striking depth) were exposed in fights against Glover Teixeira and Jan Blachowicz. However, at 185 pounds, he’s proven that his raw power and explosive physicality can make up for these flaws. Cannonier is a relatively simple fighter to prepare for, but a difficult one to beat as he can blast his way through much of his problems.
UFC Odds Pick: Hermansson to win at -252
Hermansson might have trouble with Cannonier’s quickness on the feet, but he can attack his opponent where he’s weakest: on the ground. Cannonier’s 44% takedown defense is atrocious, and it’ll ultimately be his undoing here. If you’re not liking the price here, we like the chances that Hermansson gets a stoppage - Cannonier has only fought in a five-rounder once, and might be able to hold up against the Swede’s pace.
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