Welterweight grappling specialist Gunnar Nelson (17-4-1, 4 KOs, 12 SUBs) will meet Gilbert “Durhinho” Burns (16-3, 5 KOs, 8 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 18 on Saturday, September 28, 2019 at the Royal Arena in Copenhagen, Denmark. The carid streams live on ESPN+ starting 2pm ET.
Gunnar Nelson is more than just Conor McGregor’s training partner - but just how good is he? The Icelander earned important matchups against the top ranks in Demian Maia, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Leon Edwawards, but lost in each of those opportunities. Then again, we’ve seen him post dominating performance against solid fighters in Albert Tumenov, Alan Jouban and Alex Oliveira.
It looks like Gunni is headed for gatekeeper status, but that’s not quite the role he’s playing this Saturday when he meets late notice replacement Gilbert Burns. At 31, Nelson is something of an enigma: at times he looks like a future contender, but then there are instances when he looks completely overwhelmed. Coming off a loss to rising contender Leon Edwards, Nelson now finds himself in a win-or-face-irrelevance matchup against a solid, yet unheralded opponent.
Burns steps in on just over a week’s notice to replace Thiago Alves. The Brazilian has won three straight, beating Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Mike Davis and Alexey Kunchenko since getting knocked out by Dan Hooker in July 2018. Though he usually competes at 155, “Durinho” will move up to 170 for just the second time in his career to meet Nelson. The 33-year old could actually make a decent statement by beating a respected welterweight.
For Nelson, losing to a guy like Burns - an upjumped lightweight - would be disastrous for his career. Even worse, the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu are favoring the Brazilian in this matchup, opening with Burns as a slight -130 favorite, and Nelson at +100 on the comeback.
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UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Gunnar Nelson +108
Gilbert Burns -135
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -180 / +140
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Nelson 1.76 / Burns 3.22
Striking accuracy: Nelson 57% / Burns 44%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Nelson 3.51 / Burns 3.25
Striking defense: Nelson 48% / Burns 57%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Nelson 1.95 / Burns 2.6
Takedown accuracy: Nelson 60% / Burns 39%
Takedown defense: Nelson 66% / Burns 42%
Submission average: Nelson 1.05 / Burns 0.71
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The switch from Alves to Burns would seem to make this fight tougher for Nelson. Alves is a throwback fighter whose career is coming to an end. Burns is just starting to hit his stride as a fighter. Right now, the Brazilian is better conditioned, faster and more powerful than the man he is replacing. A dynamite BJJ player, Burns has developed a powerful striking game that has to be respected. While it’s not pretty, his standup can do some serious damage and is effective in setting up his grappling.
Nelson has never been the type to overwhelm strikers with volume. His paltry 1.76 strikes landed per minute is almost laughable, but Gunni has developed an effective points karate offense - reminiscent of Lyoto Machida. His movement can stymies other strikers, and his leaping attacks can do solid damage. Of course, Nelson’s bread and butter will always be his grappling, and we’ve seen shades of Demian Maia in how he suffocates opponents and snakes his way into better positions.
UFC Odds Pick: Burns to win at -130
Obviously, the big factor here is whether Burns is in shape. But given that he won’t have to deal with a drastic weight cut, let’s assume that he’s got three good rounds in him. He is simply a poor style matchup for Nelson: he is naturally the more aggressive striker, and his wrestling/grappling can neutralize the Icelander’s biggest strengths. While the Brazilian might have a few issues against Nelson’s elusive striking, he should do enough to take the win.
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