Featherweight prospect Yair Rodriguez (11-2, 4 KOs, 2 SUBs) will meet veteran Jeremy Stephens (28-16, 19 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 17 on Saturday, September 21, 2019 at the Mexico City Arena in Mexico City, Mexico. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
How do you follow up one of the most spectacular knockouts in UFC history? That’s a question that will be answered this Saturday when Yair Rodriguez meets featherweight stalwart Jeremy Stephens in the main event of a Mexico City card.
Refresher: Last November, Rodriguez was on the verge of losing a clear decision to The Korean Zombie. But with just one second left in the last round, he ducked under a punch and threw a backward no-look elbow that knocked his opponent out cold. Like the iconic “Showtime” kick, it was a move that every fighter had to try out in the gym the next day. The win also cemented 26-year old’s status as one of the most promising young fighters in a loaded division.
But to become a contender, beating Stephens is a rite of passage at 145 pounds. Max Holloway, Frankie Edgar, Renato Moicano, Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone all had to do so. Lil’ Heathen comes into the matchup with two straight losses, but falling short against Jose Aldo and Zabit Magomedsharipov - two of the division’s best - is completely understandable. Rodriguez presents a more winnable matchup, but Stephens opened as a slight underdog with our online oddsmakers nonetheless.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting is available if you want to make wagers during any fight on the card as well.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jeremy Stephens -111
Yair Rodriguez -110
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +166 / -220
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Rodriguez 4.06 / Stephens 3.08
Striking accuracy: Rodriguez 43% / Stephens 40%
Absorbed per minute: Rodriguez 3.11 / Stephens 2.84
Defense: Rodriugez 58% / Stephens 59%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Rodriguez 1.02 / Stephens 1.11
Takedown accuracy: Rodriugez 33% / Stephens 36%
Takedown defense: Rodriguez 68% / Stephens 64%
Submission average: Rodriguez 1.02 / Stephens.41
Bet this UFC fight at BookMaker.eu
It’s a matchup between two dedicated strikers, though both men will resort to opportunistic takedowns as needed. We should also note that this fight takes place in Mexico City, a locale infamous for the high altitude - where the legend of sea level Cain was born. Both guys better make sure their cardio is on point.
El Pantera will be a huge crowd favorite as a headliner in his native Mexico, and his flashy style should ignite the base. He’s an electrifying athlete with a diverse arsenal of dynamic kicks and spinning attacks. We’ve seen him maintain his high-octane style through five rounds, making his gas tank one of the more underrated tools in his box.
That Stephens has lost two straight and still maintains a top-10 ranking speaks to the respect that the brass has for him. Though it feels like he’s been around forever, he’s still just 33 - on the tail end of his physical prime. Once just an entertaining brawler, Lil’ Heathen has matured into a patient, refined striker when he needs to be. The brawling tendencies still surface from time to time, but he picks his spots to stand and trade.
UFC Odds Pick: Rodriguez to win at -119
We can see why the online UFC odds are so close here: Stephens’ meat-and-potatoes style can absolutely match up with his opponent’s high flying antics. But we lean slightly on Rodriguez, who will most assuredly be the more active fighter in this matchup. His long-range striking should also make life difficult for the shorter Stephens.
The other bet we’d look at is that this fight goes to decision. While it might seem counterintuitive given how aggressive they both are, Rodriguez has only been finished by a doctor stoppage and finishes just over half of his opponents. At +166 we’ll take those odds.
Bet on UFC odds at the online sportsbook!
