Welterweight contender Rafael Dos Anjos (28-11, 5 KOs, 9 SUBs) will meet former lightweight contender Kevin Lee (17-4,2 KOs, 8 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 10 on Saturday, May 18, 2019 at the Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, New York. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
Kevin Lee is following a growing list of fighters leaving the lightweight division for the 170-pound weight class. Coincidentally, his first opponent at welterweight happens to be the former lightweight champion, Rafael Dos Anjos. The pairing headlines this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night offering in New York - and it’s an important fight for “The Motown Phenom”.
After getting bounced out of the lightweight title mix by the upstart Al Iaquinta, Lee will jump straight into the fire in a deep division. RDA is basically a gatekeeper to the elite class, and beating him would instantly announce the arrival of an important new player in the weight class. A loss, however, would throw him into a crowded tier of guys jostling for position behind the true contenders.
RDA is looking to avoid his third straight loss, but we can forgive consecutive losses to Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman. A loss would hurt the Brazilian’s standing, but he’d still be a respected name. A win would only reiterate his status as one of the better guys at 170 pounds.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting is also available to hedge any of your bets between rounds as well.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kevin Lee -102
Rafael Dos Anjos -128
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -135 / -105
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Dos Anjos 3.62 / Lee 4.06
Accuracy: Dos Anjos 45% / Lee 43%
Absorbed per minute: Dos Anjos 3.32 / Lee 3.18
Defense: Dos Anjos 62% / Lee 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Dos Anjos 1.96 / Lee 3.1
Takedown accuracy: Dos Anjos 40% / Lee 43%
Takedown defense: Dos Anjos 58% / Lee 80%
Submission average: Dos Anjos 0.7 / Lee 0.98
Bet this UFC fight at BookMaker.eu
It’s easy to pin this as a striker vs. wrestler matchup. RDA is a classic Muay Thai stylist who loves to pressure his opponents. Lee is an excellent submission grappler who averages over three takedowns a fight. Ragin’ Al was able to pick Lee apart on the feet, and RDA is more dynamic when it comes to striking with all 8 points.
However, the 34-year old Dos Anjos has been absolutely smothered by elite wrestlers in back-to-back fights. Both Covington and Usman blanketed the Brazilian for five rounds, and it was kind of a miracle that he even made it to decision in both of those scraps with how much he was getting pounded. You can kind of make the assumption that size was a factor here - RDA probably belongs in the 165-pound weight division that doesn’t exist. Usman and Colby are true welterweights.
Lee’s cardio has conspicuously failed him at times, and the prevailing thought is that it should improve without a drastic weight cut. Tony Ferguson and Iaquinta were simply able to outwork him over 5 rounds, and RDA’s gas tank can’t be questioned. We also don’t know how much Lee’s strength will translate in a bigger weight class, but Dos Anjos is on the smaller end of 170.
UFC Odds Pick: Lee to win at -102
This is actually a great price on Lee. Dos Anjos has a huge weakness against big, strong grapplers like The Motown Phenom. On top of that, the Brazilian doesn’t have the same ability to get back to his feet like Iaquinta and Ferguson. The first takedown for Lee might be tough, but it’ll be a downhill fight once he gets it.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 151 odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on ESPN+ 10 takes place on Saturday, May 18, 2019 at the Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, New York. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
