We’re about halfway through the year, and through the end of May the UFC has staged nearly 300 fights. That’s a lot of betting action for five months, and as usual, there’s been a good number of upsets. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu has covered every single one, which means there have been plenty of opportunities for you to come out a winner.
The overall numbers show that through May, there have been 121 favorite wins and 70 underdog wins. One card, UFC 234, was the only event where every favorite emerged victorious. And so far, only UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 has produced more underdog winners than favorites.
For context, in 2018 there 419 total fights, and 277 favorites won against 142 underdogs. That’s nearly 2-1 in favor of the chalk plays, but there were a lot of ‘dogs that pulled through.
We’ll compile the totals at the end of 2019 of course, but today we’re looking at the numbers from each of the cards to give you a closer look into how things have played out.
2019 UFC Upset Tracker (Through May 31)
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Underdog wins: 6 / Favorite wins: 7
Biggest upset: Allen Crowder +375 over Greg Hardy
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
Underdog wins: 7 / Favorite wins: 6
Biggest upset: Rogerio Bontorin +300 over Magomed Bibulatov
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
Underdog wins: 0 / Favorite wins: 11
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Underdog wins: 5 / Favorite wins: 6
Biggest upset: Nik Lentz +140 over Scott Holtzman
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos
Underdog wins: 3 / Favorite wins: 9
Biggest upset: Ismail Naurdiev +325 over Michel Prazeres
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
Underdog wins: 4 / Favorite wins: 8
Biggest upset: Hannah Cifers +240 over Polyana Viana
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Underdog wins: 4 / Favorite wins: 9
Biggest upset: Maurice Greene +185 over Jeff Hughes
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal
Underdog wins: 4 / Favorite wins: 8
Biggest upset: Jorge Masvidal +190 over Darren Till
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Underdog wins: 6 / Favorite wins: 6
Biggest upset: Anthony Pettis +300 over Stephen Thompson
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Underdog wins: 6 / Favorite wins: 6
Biggest upset: Casey Kenney +210 over Ray Borg
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Underdog wins: 6 / Favorite wins: 7
Biggest upset: Dustin Poirier +175 over Max Holloway
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Underdog wins: 3 / Favorite wins: 7
Biggest upset: Roxanne Modafferi +280 over Antonina Shevchenko
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Underdog wins: 4 / Favorite wins: 8
Biggest upset: Jack Hermansson +170 over Jacare Souza
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Underdog wins: 4 / Favorite wins: 7
Biggest upset: Vince Morales +147 over Aiemann Zahabi
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
Underdog wins: 2 / Favorite wins: 9
Biggest upset: Viviane Araujo +210 over Talita Bernardo
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee
Underdog wins: 6 / Favorite wins: 7
Biggest upset: Ed Herman +200 over Patrick Cummins
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The biggest upset of the mid-year is Allen Crowder beating Greg Hardy at +375. We know hindsight is 20/20, but this was one that was more predictable than others. For starters, Hardy as making his UFC debut with just three pro fights on his resume. Prior to that, he notched sub-minute KOs against really questionable competition. Allen Crowder was a nine-fight veteran who turned pro in 2014. We had know clue how Hardy would perform past the first round, but with zero combat sports experience nobody should have assumed it would have been good.
We’ve also got a few notable main event upsets here. Hermansson beat Jacare Souza at +170, Poirier took the W against Holloway at +175, Masvidal handled Till at +190 and Pettis prevailed at +300 against Wonderboy. Each of those ‘dogs had a solid argument, but the Showtime winner was a shocker - he was getting soundly outstruck by Thompson before a flying superman punch ended the fight in a blink. Just another reminder that anything can happen in this sport.
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