Top 10 heavyweights Alistair Overeem 45-18, 23 KOs, 17 SUBs and Walt Harris 13-7, 13 KOs will meet at UFC Fight Night 172 on Saturday, May 16 at the Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. The card airs live starting at 9pm ET.
In the heavyweight division, beating Alistair Overeem is maybe the effective means for a fighter to announce that they’re ready to contend. The Demolition Man is a big name, still dangerous enough to pose some risk, but he’s also got a shattered chin that can be exploited. That makes him the perfect guy to call out - kind of like when every 185-pounder was looking at Michael Bisping like a stepping stone.
The last four fighters to beat The Demolition Man are Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Curtis Blaydes, Francis Ngannou and Stipe Miocic. Rozenstruik and Ngannou just fought in a pseudo title eliminator, Blaydes is well on his way to a title shot and Miocic is the actual champion. This Saturday, Walt Harris will look to join them in hopes of jumping into the top 5.
Harris comes into the matchup unbeaten in his last four UFC fights. Save for a decision win over Arlovski, that was later overturned due to a hot test, Harris has finished all of his opponents during this current run. Most recently, he needed just 12 seconds to flatline submission specialist Alexey Oleynik, giving him a ton of momentum for his first fight of 2020.
Overeem is coming off a crushing loss to Rozenstruik - he was knocked out with just seconds left in a fight he was handily winning. The worst part of it was that his upper lip was torn open in the process, and the split pieces were flapping independently of each other as he tried to converse with people afterwards. It looked like something out of a horror movie.
There’s a lot at stake here: Overeem is trying to maintain his status as a top heavyweight, Harris is trying to overtake him. Early UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Harris as a clear favorite, but let’s take a look at the best values in the online sportsbook. Live UFC betting is also available during the fight as well.
Alistair Overeem +127
Walt Harris -160
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +305 / -425
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Overeem 3.65 / Harris 2.96
Striking accuracy: Overeem 73% / Harris 38%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Overeem 4.69 / Harris 2.68
Striking defense: Overeem 59% / Harris 61%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Overeem 0.6 / Harris 0.35>
Takedown accuracy: Overeem 25% / Harris 33%
Takedown defense: Overeem 73% / Harris 76%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Overeem 0.3 / Harris 0.18
It’s tough to know how good Harris can be. He’s 36 years old and it took him a few years to consistently string wins together against mediocre competition. In fact, early in his career it didn’t look like he would stick around in the UFC. While he’s put together a nice little streak, Harris still has yet to prove he can raise his game against upper level fighters.
Overeem is the same guy that he’s been for that past five years: one of the best strikers in the game and a killshot hitter with a glass chin. The Dutchman has reached a point in his career where opponents only need to land one good punch to beat him. Guys like Rozenstruik and Antonio Silva just took their beatings before unleashing fight-ending flurries. Others like Ngannou and Blaydes came out aggressive and put him away.
UFC Odds Pick: Overeem to win by TKO
It’s very, very dangerous to bet on Overeem - but he’s still a guy that beats mid-level guys with ease. Harris’ size and speed makes this risky, but The Reem is easily the more skilled fighter here. We fully expect him to control the striking exchanges and fend off the takedowns. We’re also going with TKO victory prop simply because Alistair rarely fights to decision - might as well maximize your bet.
