Lightweight veterans Evan Dunham (18-7, 3 KOs, 6 SUBs) and Francisco Trinaldo (22-6, 7 KOs, 5 SUBs) will meet at UFC Fight Night 137 on Saturday, September 22, 2018 at the Geraldo Jose de Almeida Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10:30 pm ET.
For a hot second, Francisco Trinaldo was looking like a dark horse contender. The Brazilian had reeled off seven straight wins, including impressive victories over Yancy Medeiros and Paul Felder. Then he got suffocated by Kevin Lee and stiff-armed by James Vick. With a 1-2 record in his last three, Trinaldo is now back to trying establish a foothold in the top 15 of the most stacked division in the UFC.
His opponent, Evan Dunham, has always been one of the tougher mid-tier outs. Never quite good enough to break through as a legitimate upper level lightweight, Dunham’s toughness nevertheless earned him fights against killers like Rafael dos Anjos, Donald Cerrone and Edson Barboza. Yes, he lost handily to all three, but the fact that he was deemed worthy to face elite fighters says a lot.
While it’s probably too late for either guy to make a run at the title at this point - Trinaldo is 40 and Dunham 36 - they can still offer a lot as gatekeepers. In this division, there is no shortage of up-and-coming fighters to test, as well as fun style matchups that could keep them busy for a few more years.
Aesthetically, the fight should be bruiser, with two abnormally tough fighters who can dish out high amounts of damage. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. If you’re flip-flopping back and forth on these, in-game UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is also an option.
UFC Fight Night 137 Betting at BookMaker.eu
Evan Dunham -190
Francisco Trinaldo +150
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -190 / +150
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Trinaldo 3.28 / Dunham 5.46
Accuracy: Trinaldo 45.62% / Dunham 39.51%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Trinaldo 2.46 / Dunham 3.56
Defense: Trinaldo 59.65% / Dunham 61.8%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Trinaldo 1.22 / Dunham 1.84
Takedown accuracy: Trinaldo 47.06% / Dunham 32.93%
Takedowns defended: Trinaldo 63.49% / Dunham 80.56%
Submission average: Trinaldo 0.53 / Dunham 1.02
Bet on Trinaldo vs. Dunham UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu now
This is a pairing of two wrestle-boxers who do their best work as the bully. Trinaldo can be a smothering top-position fighter, but he’s fallen in love with the standup. The Brazilian obviously feels that he can walk down anybody, bulldozing forward and putting as much pressure as he can on opponents. When he throws, the 40-year old puts everything behind his strikes - it’s a little wild, but achieves the desired effect of backing guys up.
Dunham might even be the more aggressive of the two. His boxing output is extremely high, and the Xtreme Couture rep does amazing work in close quarters, whether it’s delivering short hooks inside the pocket or crunching knees in the clinch. A black belt in BJJ under Robert Drysdale, Dunham knows his way around the mat, though his meat-and-potatoes wrestling lacks the sort of flourish that could make it a go-to weapon.
Both men have serious wear and tear on their bodies, as their fighting styles are conducive to punishing bouts of attrition. Their wins come by decision, and usually after hard-fought rounds. This could easily come down to who has the better cardio, since so many of the things they do cancel each other out.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision -190
This is a tough pick, since both fighters are so similar in style and good at what they do. At gunpoint, we’d lean towards Dunham to win, as his output is higher and his clinchwork is excellent. But if we’re playing it safe, then we’ll bet that this fight goes to decision. Trinaldo has gone to decision in seven of his past 10, and five of Dunham’s last six have made it to the judges. With their bodies on the decline, it’ll be harder and harder for them to score finishes.
UFC Fight Night 137 Odds
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 137 takes place on Saturday, September 22, 2018 at the Geraldo Jose de Almeida Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
