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Welterweight veteran Jake Ellenberger (31-14, 19 KOs, 6 SUBs) will meet Bryan “Bam Bam” Barberena (13-5, 9 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 135 on Saturday, August 25, 2018 at the Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska. The card airs live on FS1.
The expiration date on Jake Ellenberger’s fight career has long expired, but the artist formerly known as “The Juggernaut” just keeps plugging away. Despite a 2-8 record in his past 10 fights, the 33-year old still believes that he’s got something left to give the UFC. For most fans that remember the fearsome slugger’s earlier years, it’d just be nice to see him not get knocked out for once.
After a steady decline in competition, Ellenberger meets midcard talent Bryan Barberena this Saturday in what should be an entertaining contest. Bam Bam’s best known handing Sage Northcutt his first career loss, but the 29-year old has only managed a 2-2 record since then. Coincidentally, Barberena’s UFC debut came against Jake’s twin brother Joe, which ended in a knockout win for Bam Bam.
Could this be the fight that finally sends Ellenberger into retirement? It’d be nice for him to walk away with a win. Then again, losing to an unsung fighter like Barberena might be the wakeup call that he needs. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu seems to favor one side of that equation, so let’s get into which way you should lean.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jake Ellenberger -526
Bryan Barberena +362
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +180 / -240
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Ellenberger 2.43 / Barberena 4.89
Accuracy: Ellenberger 38.72% / Barberena 49.17%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Ellenberger 2.76 / Barberena 3.67
Defense: Ellenberger 61.13% / Barberena 50.32%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Ellenberger 2.07 / Barberena 0.35
Takedown accuracy: Ellenberger 47.92% / Barberena 40%
Takedowns defended: Ellenberger 86.21% / Barberena 47.22%
Submission average: Ellenberger 0.36 / Barberena 0.35
Bet on Jake Ellenberger vs. Bryan Barberena Odds
How much more can Ellenberger take? A violent, brawling style has left him with a cracked chin, and despite a change in training camps Jake has been unable to make the transition into a more conservative fighter. Some guys are just born to bang, but it rarely ends well. Consider the fact that in his last eight losses, six have come in some form of stoppage.
Lawler floored him with a knee, Wonderboy did it with a spinning hook kick. With Masvidal, it was punches that did the deed. Mike Perry took him out with an elbow, and Ben Saunders most recently folded Ellenberger over with a knee to the body. Even scarier, most of these TKOs came within the first two rounds.
Can Bam Bam exploit Ellenberger’s inability to take punishment? The stats certainly would suggest so. His resume boasts nine KOs in 13 career wins, and a high strike rate shows just how aggressive he is. That spells extreme danger for a guy as vulnerable as Jake.
When you look through Barberena’s UFC footage, nothing really jumps out at you. He’s just a so-so athlete and he’s not really wowing anyone with his technique. But you do get a sense that he’s an extremely gritty fighter who tends to get stronger the more a scrap turns into a dogfight. These days, toughness is pretty much all it takes to get past Ellenberger.
UFC Odds Pick: Barberena inside the distance at -215
The money line to win is a bit too expensive to tempt a bet, so we’re going Barberena inside the distance to make sure we don’t have to bet too much to win a little. Ellenberger’s chin and cardio just doesn’t hold up for three rounds anymore.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 135 takes place on Saturday, August 25, 2018 at the Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska. The card airs live on FS1.
