Strawweight prospects Alexa Grasso (10-1, 4 KOs) and Tatiana Suarez (5-0, 1 KO, 2 SUBs) will meet at UFC Fight Night 129 on Saturday, May 19, at the Movistar Arena in Santiago, Chile. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and check out our previews, picks and predictions now.
Though Alexa Grasso and Tatiana Suarez are both promising young women’s strawweight prospects, they could not be any more different. The UFC is hoping for Grasso to become a star in her native Mexico, with her attractive looks and her smooth striking. As for Suarez, she came up as a TUF winner, grinding her way through the ranks with suffocating wrestling and a lowkey personality.
Grasso recently bounced back from her first loss with a tough split decision over Randa Markos. It should be noted that her lone defeat against Herrig seemed to be a winnable scrap had Grasso been just a bit more aggressive. Suarez won TUF 23 in July 2016, but injuries kept her out of the cage until her return in November 2017, where she scored a dominant decision over Viviane Pereira.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu have Suarez as a considerable favorite, which is understandable considering that wrestlers usually have the advantage against standup fighters. This presents a tantalizing comeback on Grasso, but is it a chance you want to take? Let’s break it down and go over your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tatiana Suarez -480
Alexa Grasso +320
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Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed p/m: Grasso 4.64 / Suarez 4.65
Accuracy: Grasso 42.05% / Suarez 69.6%
Significant strikes absorbed p/m: Grasso 3.22 / Suarez 0.75
Defense: Grasso 67.49% / Suarez 48.15%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Grasso 0.33 / Suarez 5.61
Takedown accuracy: Grasso 50% / Suarez 87.5%
Takedowns defended: Grasso 68.42% / Suarez 0%
Submission average: Grasso 0.33 / Suarez 0.8
Matchup Preview
There are good reasons to see each as a future contender, and this matchup could serve as a springboard for the winner. In a vacuum, it’s the classic wrestler vs. striker matchup, and where this fight goes should dictate the victor.
Don’t be fooled by the striking stats: Grasso is easily the more polished kickboxer. But to truly impose her advantage, she’ll have to control the distance, avoid the clinch and not let the threat of the takedown change her offense too much. It’ll be extremely important to stay on her feet early, as Saurez wastes no time diving into doubles to at least force cage tie-ups.
Grasso had some success against another wrestler in Markos. In that fight, she was able to sprawl, showed good strength in getting back to her feet and found a few hip escapes. However, other times she got driven down with brute strength and even full mounted.
Suarez is a much, much stronger wrestler than Markos. In fact, she was a 2012 Olympic Games hopeful until suffering a neck injury and battling back from thyroid cancer. On top of that, she was the number 1 pick at TUF 23 and subbed every opponent on the way to winning the season.
UFC Odds Pick: Parlay Suarez to win at -460
Grasso is good, but Suarez has a sky-high ceiling. She will be relentless in getting takedowns, and while the Mexican fighter might have some success in defending at first, she will eventually end up on her back with one of the best wrestlers in the division on top of her. Suarez is a safe play, but the price to win is just a parlay booster.
UFC Odds Pick: Suarez to win by submission
Grasso is the best opponent Suarez has faced thus far, but not the most accomplished grappler. Suarez should be able to pick off a tired Grasso late in the fight.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 129 takes place on Saturday, May 19, at the Movistar Arena in Santiago, Chile. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
