Stephen Thompson is favored against Gilbert Burns at UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 on Saturday, July 10 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of five fights on the pay-per-view main card. Burns is 19-4 in his career, while Thompson is 16-4 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card of UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 and eight preliminary bouts, with four on ESPN/ESPN+ and four on ESPN+/ UFC Fight Pass.Let’s look at the bout between Burns and Thompson and UFC predictions.
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 Betting
Gilbert Burns (19-4, 12-4 UFC)
Burns came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and he has 12 wins and four losses in the UFC. In his last five fights he is 4-1. He is coming off a TKO loss to Kamaru Usman in February. Burns won a unanimous decision against Tyron Woodley in May of last year, won by TKO against Demian Maia in March of last year, won a unanimous decision against Gunnar Nelson in September of 2019 and won a unanimous decision against Alexey Kunchenko in August of 2019. Burns has been a pro since 2012 and he has six knockout wins. He has 10 first round finishes.
Stephen Thompson (16-4, 11-4 UFC)
Thompson came into the UFC with a record of 5-0 and he has 11 wins and four losses in the UFC. He is 3-2 in his last five fights. He is coming off a unanimous decision win against Geoff Neal in December of last year. Thompson won a unanimous decision against Vicente Luque in November of 2019, lost by knockout to Anthony Pettis in March of 2019, lost a unanimous decision to Darren Till in May of 2018 and won a unanimous decision against Jorge Masvidal in November of 2017. Thompson has been a pro since 2010 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Thompson said he expects a very difficult test on Saturday night. “His striking, he’s got the power, the ability to knock you out. The ability to take you down and not only that but he’s got crazy jiu-jitsu.” Thompson said to the media, “That’s why I’m in this game. That’s why I’m excited about this because I’m going to be facing the best. I wouldn’t want anything less than what Gilbert Burns is going to bring on July 10,"
Strikes landed per minute: Burns 3.22 / Thompson 4.24
Striking Accuracy: Burns 45% / Thompson 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Burns 3.04 / Thompson 2.80
Defense: Burns 54% / Thompson 58%
Takedown average: Burns 2.08 / Thompson 0.32
Takedown Accuracy: Burns 35% / Thompson 45%
Takedowns defended: Burns 50% / Thompson 78%
Submission average: Burns 0.7 / Thompson 0.0
I am a little surprised that Thompson is favored in this fight, as I don’t see much between them. I went back and looked at the numbers and I don’t see a lot of knockout power from either of them recently. Almost all of their first-round knockouts came against weak opposition. The rounds option on this fight is 2.5 with the over at -150. I think this fight goes over the total, so I will lay the -150 and go over 2.5 rounds.
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 Card & Odds
Lightweight - Dustin Poirier -142 vs. Conor McGregor +112
Welterweight - Gilbert Burns +131 vs. Stephen Thompson -165
Featherweight - Ryan Hall +190 vs. Ilia Topuria -245
Women’s Flyweight - Jessica Eye +146 vs. Jennifer Maia -185
Flyweight - Jerome Rivera +273 vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov -370
Middleweight - Brad Tavares -170 vs. Omari Akhmedov +135
Heavyweight - Greg Hardy +105 vs. Tai Tuivasa -135
Middleweight - Dricus du Plessis -120 vs. Trevin Giles -110
Women’s Bantamweight - Yana Kunitskaya -110 vs. Irene Aldana -120
Middleweight - Yaozong Hu +110 vs. Alen Amedovski -140
Welterweight - Niko Price +131 vs. Michel Pereira -165
Welterweight - Max Griffin -190 vs. Carlos Condit +150
Bantamweight - Kris Moutinho +524 vs. Sean O'Malley -850
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