Former middleweight title challenger Kelvin Gastelum (15-6, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet Ian Heinisch (14-3, 5 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns on Saturday, February 13, 2021 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card streams live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET. The contest supports a headliner featuring welterweight champion Kamaru Usman (17-1, 7 KOs, 1 SUB) and surging contender Gilbert "Durinho" Burns (19-3, 6 KOs, 8 SUBs). Let's take a look at the look at the UFC online sportsbook and break down your best betting picks. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Gastelum as a -210 favorite, with Heinisch at +165 on the comeback.
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The Stakes
In April 2019, Kelvin Gastelum gave middleweight champion Israel Adesanya the toughest fight of his career - a distinction that's aged beautifully as Izzy has become one of the biggest stars in the UFC. But then he lost his next two fights, dropping a split decision to Darren Till before getting subbed quickly by Jack Hermansson. You might not really know Ian Heinisch, but that's kind of the point: this is a scrap meant to get Gastelum back in the win column, but Heinisch could relegate him to mediocrity with an upset. It'd easily be the biggest win of his career.
Kelvin Gastelum (15-6, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs)
We've seen Gastelum graduate The Ultimate Fighter at 21 and grow up inside the octagon. At 29, Kelvin is still young by fighter standards but a hardened vet when it comes to fight experience. From welterweight to middleweight, Gastelum has proven himself at the very least an upper tier fighter, with flashes of championship potential. His resume is peppered with wins over some impressive names: Johny Hendricks, Tim Kennedy, Michael Bisping and Jacare Souza stand out. Then again, losses to Tyron Woodley, Neil Magny, Chris Weidman and his current three-fight losing streak show that he's perhaps a tier below the true title contenders.
No matter where he stands, Gastelum will never be boring - he's simply not built that way. For starters, refusing to drop down to 170 means he'll always have to utilize his speed to beat bigger men. This dude is absolutely fearless, weaving into range and forcing opponents to fight inside a phone booth. That pressure, along with his fast and accurate hands, usually leads to serious damage. He'll certainly carry a clear striking advantage here.
Ian Heinisch (14-3, 5 KOs, 2 SUBs)
For a hot second, Heinisch looked like a legit player at 185 pounds. Coming into the UFC off a sweet KO in DWTNCS, The Hurricane pulled off two huge wins in his first two octagon appearances, besting good fighters in Cezar "Mutante" Ferreira and Antonio Carlos Jr. That led to a prove it match against a top 10 fighter in Derek Brunson. His wild, pressure style just didn't work against the top shelf fighter, and that was largely the same case in a loss to Omari Akhmedov.
Heinisch bounced back with a win against Meerschaert, in a fight where he showed off a newfound affinity for leg kicks. It only took a few to completely compromise Meerschaert, setting up a nuclear right hand that prompted a finishing flurry. It was hard to tell if he made any improvements, but it was proof that his aggressiveness can still separate him from the mid-carders.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Gastelum 3.72 / Heinisch 3.62
Striking accuracy: Gastelum 43% / Heinisch 52%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Gastelum 3.00 / Heinisch 2.85
Striking defense: Gastelum 59% / Heinisch 59%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Gastelum 0.87 / Heinisch 1.16
Takedown accuracy: Gastelum 37% / Heinisch 19%
Takedown defense: Gastelum 63% / Heinisch 62%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Gastelum 0.1 / Heinisch 0.5
UFC Picks
There is a chance that Gastelum's downward spiral continues, but this is a favorable matchup for him and a fair betting line. Heinisch is nowhere near as skilled on the feet as Kelvin, and is not the type of overpowering grappler that gives him trouble. While this one should be entertaining, it should be a clear victory for Kelvin.
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Card & Odds
Welterweight - Gilbert Burns +225 vs. Kamaru Usman -279
Middleweight - Ian Heinisch +181 vs. Kelvin Gastelum -220
Women's Flyweight - Maycee Barber +113 vs. Alexa Grasso -137
Welterweight - Gabriel Green -134 vs. Philip Rowe +110
Middleweight - Maki Pitolo +138 vs. Julian Marquez -166
Women's Strawweight - Polyana Viana +128 vs. Mallory Martin -154
Middleweight - Anthony Hernandez +329 vs. Rodolfo Vieira -429
Women's Flyweight - Miranda Maverick -139 vs. Gillian Robertson +115
Lightweight - Jim Miller +213 vs. Bobby Green -264
Featherweight - Brian Kelleher +207 vs. Ricky Simon -255
Welterweight - Dhiego Lima +322 vs. Belal Muhammad -419
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