Lightweight contender Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson 25-3, 12 KOs, 8 SUBs will meet knockout artist Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje 21-2, 18 KOs, 1 SUB at UFC 249 on Saturday, May 9 at the Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. The card airs live starting 10pm ET.
Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov is probably never gonna happen. We’re so sorry - there are numbers you can call if you’re feeling really depressed. Khabib is stuck in Russia and was (justifiably) questioning whether to fight a killer under such difficult circumstances anyway.
But Dana White is pushing forward with UFC 249 - just a few weeks later than originally scheduled. We’ve got a date, we’ve got a location, and we’ve got a new opponent: Justin freaking Gaethje. This is one of the most exciting fights that Dana White could make. But the fact that it’s replacing the one fight that the MMA world has waited years for still leaves a bitter taste in our mouths.
It’s like being promised the finest Kobe beef in the world but being given a USDA Prime steak instead. I mean, we’re still gonna enjoy the hell out of the Prime steak but you know damn well that we’ll be thinking about the Kobe we coulda been eating instead.
Plus, are we getting the best version of this fight? If these guys have been following social distancing guidelines, then a normal training camp is impossible.
If Tony loses? Then that fight with Khabib all of a sudden makes no sense. Credit to El Cucuy for being a badass, but this is one of those times where 99% of the MMA world would have rather him waited for the title shot.
Still, you can’t hate on a guy for wanting to get paid. Just like you can’t hate on a sports bettor for trying to score some cash on this fight. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Tony as a clear -175 favorite, with Gaethje at +144 on the comeback. Let’s dive into the fight and go over your best betting options in the UFC online sportsbook.
Tony Ferguson -190
Justin Gaethje +150
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +335 / -505
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Ferguson 5.51 / Gaethje 8.5
Striking accuracy: Ferguson 44% / Gaethje 54%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Ferguson 3.55 / Gaethje 10.23
Striking defense: Ferguson 63% / Gaethje 53%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Ferguson 0.6 / Gaethje 0
Takedown accuracy: Ferguson 42% / Gaethje 0
Takedown defense: Ferguson 76% / Gaethje 80%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Ferguson 1.49 / Gaethje 0
If this fight was booked under normal circumstances, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Gaethje open as a favorite. But the fact is that Ferguson has been training for a championship fight and Gaethje has not. That matters. A lot.
We really don’t know which way the money lines will swing, because it’s easy to talk yourself into an upset. Ferguson is hittable early in his fights, which is pretty much an unforgivable sin against a guy like Gaethje. The former WSOF champ is no longer just a brawl-or-nothing fighter either, operating with fight-ending bursts. Tony has a chin on him, but there are some guys you just can’t take hits against.
UFC Odds Picks: Ferguson at -150, Gaethje at +175
UFC Odds Pick: Parlay fight doesn’t go to decision
We’re giving you some ranges to work with. Getting a 50% ROI on Ferguson sounds like a good deal, as is getting back $175 for every $100 you bet on Gaethje. The one thing you can count on is that there’s no way this fight goes to the judges’ scorecards.
Gaethje is most dangerous in the first round, but we’d expect him to fade quickly against a cardio machine. The ideal situation here is “The Highlight” pummeling El Cucuy in Round 1, giving you superb underdog value on Ferguson heading into the second frame.
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