Former strawweight champions Jessica Andrade (20-7, 7 KOs, 7 SUBs) and Rose Namajunas (8-4, 1 KO, 5 SUBS) will meet at UFC 249 on Saturday April, 18 at a location to be determined. The main card will air live on pay-per-view.
Jessica Andrade might have beaten Rose Namajunas to win the title, but nobody that actually watched the fight would believe that she could do it again. It’s up to the Brazilian to prove that it wasn’t a fluke.
The rematch between the two serves as the co-main event of the bizarre-yet-stacked UFC 249 next week. It’s a compelling one for a number of reasons. For starters, Rose looked like the best strawweight in the world for a round and a half. We’re eager to see if she picks up where she left off, considering Andrade posterized her. Any knockout slam is going to get a lot of buzz, especially one where people watching genuinely feared for a fighter’s health and safety.
There might not be a grudge match between them, there’s definitely history. Additionally, a title fight is at stake. While all signs are pointing to a second go-round between Zhang and Jedrzejczyk, the winner would most certainly get next - especially if it’s Rose.
Online oddsmakers seem to think that Andrade’s win was a fluke: the UFC odds opened with Namajunas as a heavy -210 favorite, giving Andrade +165 on the comeback. Let’s break down the fight and take a look at your best UFC betting options.
Jessica Andrade +165
Rose Namajunas -210
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision:
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Andrade 6.58 / Namajunas 3.95
Striking accuracy: Andrade 51% / Namajunas 3.88
Strikes absorbed per minute: Andrade 5.04 / Namajunas 3.88
Striking defense: Andrade 51% / Namajunas 59%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Andrade 3.2 / Namajunas 2.17
Takedown accuracy: Andrade 58% / Namajunas 55%
Takedown defense: Andrade 75% / Namajunas 46%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Andrade 0.48 / Namajunas 0.95
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Amazingly, Namajunas was a slight underdog going into the first matchup. The thinking was that she couldn’t handle the physicality of a beast like Andrade. That was way off: Rose was too fast, too accurate and too slick for the Brazilian. The first round was so lopsided that it was amazing that Andrade even survived it at all.
There are a few reasons that Namajunas isn’t a runaway favorite. Andrade was able to slam Namajunas a few times - and we’re not just talking about the finishing salvo either. Being able to suplex a fighter so easily is a kind of a big deal. She also was having some success with leg kicks, turning Rose’s leg red after just one round. It’s doubtful that she could have taken much more damage, but Andrade did succeed in slowing down Namajunas.
UFC Odds Pick: Namajunas to win at -210
This is an easy pick, and you might even want to use it as a parlay. Andrade really doesn’t have many paths to victory, and getting tuned up by Weili Zhang in her next fight is evidence that her chin might not be what it used to be. Namajunas isn’t going to make fight-ending mistakes in consecutive fights.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision
This is a riskier pick, considering that the first fight ended so early - and both women clearly have the tools to finish each other. But at this value, we can talk ourselves into a more conservative fight between two women that can take some hits. Remember, this is only three rounds.
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