Women’s strawweight champion Weili Zhang (20-1, 10 KOs, 7 SUBs) will meet former titleholder Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-3, 4 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC 248 on Saturday, March 7 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on ESPN pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
Weili Zhang shocked the MMA world when she knocked out Jessica Andrade to become China’s first UFC champion in August 2019. This Saturday, her first title defense comes against the best fighter in her division’s history: former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
Though the Polish kickboxer is just 2-3 in her past five, all her losses have come against championship level fighters. Prior to losing her belt to Rose Namajunas in 2017, Jedrzejczyk was a perfect 14-0 with five consecutive title defenses. That’s easily enough to qualify her for the divisional GOAT status, though the weight class is still in its infancy. Losses to Thug Rose and Shevchenko (for the inaugural flyweight belt) show that she may be slowing down, but at the end of the day she’s still at top-3 fighter in the most stacked women’s division.
Since losing her pro MMA debut in 2013, Zhang has won 20 straight - a streak that includes four octagon appearances. Though her UFC debut against Danielle Taylor was anything but impressive, the 30-year old has quickly evolved into a powerhouse, with dominant finishes over Jessica Aguilar and Jessica Andrade. While many were writing off her title bid as a UFC effort to raise the sport in China, Zhang has proven that she’s the real deal - and more.
Very, very interesting matchup here, with especially significant implications for Zhang. Jedrezjczyk has only lost to championship level fighters, and we still don’t know how good the Chinese champion can be. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Weili as a clear -155 favorite, but Jedrzejczyk is only a slight underdog at +124 - that’s respect. Let’s take a look at the online sportsbook and break down your best betting options.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk +146 vs. Zhang Weili -185
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +565 / -1095
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Zhang 5.49 / Jedrzejczyk 6.07
Striking accuracy: Zhang 46% / Jedrzejczyk 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Zhang 2.17 / Jedrzejczyk 2.77
Striking defense: Zhang 62% / Jedrzejczyk 65%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Zhang 1.78 / Jedrzejczyk 0.14
Takedown accuracy: Zhang 30% / Jedrzejczyk 66%
Takedown defense: Zhang 100% / Jedrzejczyk 80%
Submissions average: Zhang 0.89 / Jedrzejczyk 0
Bet this UFC fight at BookMaker.eu
For most of JJ’s reign, the prevailing thought was that you’d have to wrestle her to beat her. But then Rose Namajunas proved that a long, fast striker could take Joanna out at her own game. To this day, nobody has been able to successfully keep her pinned to the mat and control her - though Gadelha gave it an admirable effort before gassing out. While Jedrzejczyk’s invincible aura has long been shattered, her opponent still needs to have an elite skill to beat her.
The question here is whether Zhang has that. Physically, she gives up two inches to JJ - a master of using her long frame to dictate distance. The length that gave Jedrzejczyk so much trouble against Thug Rose won’t be an issue here. Brawling doesn’t seem like a good option, as Andrade’s efforts against the former champion was useless. Then again, if Zhang has the explosiveness to take out Brazil’s version of Blanka, then Joanna’s suspect chin is at serious risk. The champion’s power lets her drag opponents to the mat, but Joanna’s excellent takedown defense should be sufficient to keep this fight standing.
UFC Odds Pick: Jedrzejczyk to win at +146
This is an extremely tough pick, but we’re taking Joanna to get the belt back. There is a risk her chin gets nuked by Zhang, but this is a favorable matchup for her. The Polish fighter thrives against aggressive, shorter opponents, and has forged an excellent career picking apart fighters that charge into her range. Zhang is march-down fighter who likes to go first, and Joanna’s counters will lead her to a decision win.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu now!
