Undefeated middleweight Israel Adesanya (18-0, 14 KOs) will defend his title against Yoel Romero (13-4, 11 KOs) at UFC 248 on Saturday, March 7 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on ESPN pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
There’s a reason that Yoel Romero keeps getting title shots: he’s a freaking monster. Also, luck. Guys get injured, he steps up. And every time he fights a championship level opponent, he either dunks them into a trash can or it’s a back-and-forth trench war. Despite being 42 years old, Romero is still a killer in a division filled with sharks.
Paula Costa’s biceps injury gives Romero his fourth title fight this Saturday, and the Cuban has the chance to not only seize the elusive strap, but hand Israel Adesanya his first loss. The 30-year old phenom has grown into one of the UFC’s biggest stars, with wins over Derek Brunson, Anderson Silva, Kelvin Gastelum and Robert Whittaker. In addition to getting his hand raised, Adesanya has straight up styled on some of these dudes. Add those style points to serious swag and an excellent Twitter game, and you’ve got a champ with serious starpower.
While Adesanya could have chosen to wait for Costa, a fight with Romero makes sense (and dollars). Anybody who wants to prove he’s the best middleweight in the world needs to put away the Soldier of God at some point. Costa might have beaten Romero, but he hasn’t earned that status yet. If Adesanya can school Romero, the rest of the division needs to be very, very scared.
Still, the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Adesanya as a huge -235 favorite, with Romero at +195 on the comeback. Is that an opportunity to score on a live ‘dog? Let’s break down the matchup and the best betting values in the online sportsbook.
Israel Adesanya -300
Yoel Romero +228
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +145 / -185
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Adesanya 4.47 / Romero 3.32
Striking accuracy: Adesanya 53% / Romero 51%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Adesanya 2.07 / Romero 2.95
Striking defense: Adesanya 69% / Romero 63%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Adesanya 0 / Romero 1.98
Takedown accuracy: Adesanya - / Romero 35%
Takedown defense: Adesanya 85% / Romero 78%
Submission defense: Adesanya 0.22 / Romero 0
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Adesanya is the division’s best striker since Anderson Silva. While he hasn’t quite reached The Matrix-level of style that The Spider has in the past, The Last Stylebender has blown out some excellent standup artists in Robert Whittaker, Derek Brunson and Brad Tavares.
Obviously, Adesanya is going to have an advantage in the standup - he is more active, dynamic and creative than his opponent. But that hardly matters against a guy like Romero. The Cuban willingly drops rounds, biding his time for the perfect moment to unleash a fight-ending blitz. Those bursts are the most violent moments in MMA, as Romero is 200+ pounds of pure muscle and explosive athleticism.
There is some question as to whether Romero tries to take this to the ground - he is an Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling. But our guess is no: Brunson tried in vain to take Adesanya to the ground and paid the price. Plus, Romero has never relied on wrestling to begin with, it burns up far too much of his gas tank to try and wrestle. This one takes place on the feet.
UFC Odds Pick: Adesanya to win at -300
While Romero is a threat to end the fight at any time, he might be slowing down just a tad. Robert Whittaker was able to survive two near finishes, and Costa was able to largely avoid the onslaughts. Adesanya is more skilled than both those fighters, and showed he could take some serious damage against Gastelum. As the younger, quicker fighter, this is the champ’s fight to lose.
UFC Odds Pick: Romero to win by TKO
This is your hedge play. Romero does not win fights by decision (it’s very rare). If he does pull of the upset here, might as well pad your return by picking the most likely method of victory.
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