No. 8 light middleweight Derek Brunson (20-7, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet blue chip prospect Edmen Shahbazyan (11-0, 9 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC 248 on Saturday, March 7 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on ESPN pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
Update: this matchup has been postponed to UFC Fight NIght 172 on April 11. Early money lines are available at the online sportsbook.
Edmen Shahbazyan used to be known as Ronda Rousey’s teenage training partner. Today, the 22-year old is the most hyped prospect in the middleweight division. This Saturday, he gets the opportunity to prove that he’s a top 10 fighter when he meets Derek Brunson on a Las Vegas pay-per-view.
Making his pro fighting debut in 2017, Shahbazyan has scorched his way to a perfect 11-0 record - a streak that includes four octagon appearances. With the exception of a split decision victory in his UFC debut, the prospect has finished all of his opponents, with nine coming by way of knockout. Anybody who’s seen him fight can’t help rave about him, but his last outing against Brad Tavares was particularly eye-opening: Shahbazyan needed less than two and a half minutes to headkick a highly respected veteran into oblivion.
Brunson is a dangerous opponent for such a young fighter. The 36-year old has been instrumental in separating the men from the boys, turning back middle class fighters with ease while playing stepping stone for guys looking to become contenders. In 16 UFC fights, his only losses have come against Jacare Souza, Robert Whittaker, Yoel Romero, Anderson Silva and Israel Adesanya. However, the best win on his resume came against an aging Lyoto Machida - Brunson has yet to claim a signature victory inside the octagon.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Shahbazyan as a significant -245 favorite, with Brunson at +205 on the comeback. Let’s break down if you should consider the ‘dog at these odds. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook lets you make wagers during the fight as well.
Derek Brunson +205
Edmen Shahbazyan -245
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision:
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Brunson 3.21 / Shahbazyan 2.24
Striking accuracy: Brunson 44% / Shahbazyan 60%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Brunson 3.24 / Shahbazyan 2.56
Striking defense: Brunson 53% / Shahbazyan 53%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Brunson 2.6 / Shahbazyan 7.68
Takedown accuracy: Brunson 26% / Shahbazyan 38%
Takedown defense: Brunson 100% / Shahbazyan 75%
Submission average: Brunson 0.46 / Shahbazyan 0
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It’s almost impossible not to get on Shahbazyan’s hype train. While there were some initial thoughts that his hype was due to Ronda Rousey being his manager, he has quickly shown to be a force in a top-heavy division. It’s fair to question whether he can reach his full potential under the questionable Edmond Tarverdyan, but at least we know he’s getting a lot of good mitt work in. Shahbazyan has the “it” factor in his hands - dudes just drop when he touches them, similar to Conor McGregor or Rumble Johnson.
Brunson is an excellent step up from Tavares. Like the Hawaiian, Brunson has the ability to grind out victories through wrestling, and we’re not quite sure how the young Shahbazyan will respond to a heavy diet of takedowns. What makes this really interesting is Brunson is a far better athlete, with one punch KO power. There was a point where he fancied himself a brawler, but a few bad losses have forced him to evolve into a much smarter fighter. His last two victories have been three-round decisions, which signals that he might be returning to his roots as he ages. But much like the retired Rashad Evans, Brunson simply bides his time to explosive single punches that can end the night in an instant.
UFC Odds Pick: Shahbazyan to win at -245
We normally like picking well-rounded vets over ridiculously hyped prospects, but we simply can’t pick against Shahbazyan here. Brunson is a very good wrestler, but things tend to go south quickly if he can’t force the issue. Right now, Shahbazyan is simply too fast and springy for Brunson, and the young phenom should easily create a significant striking chasm between the two.
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