Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman (15-1, 6 KOs, 1 SUB) will defend his title against Colby Covington (15-1, 2 KOs, 5 SUBs) in the main event of UFC 245 on Saturday, December 14, 2019 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
There are few things more appealing than a title that happens to be a legitimate grudge match. That’s what we’re getting this Saturday when welterweight champion Kamaru Usman defends his title against Colby Covington in the main event of UFC 245 this Saturday. Both men have done their part to convince the world that they hate each other - to the point where the UFC saw fit to make their matchup a headliner on a loaded Las Vegas pay-per-view card featuring three title fights.
The appeal for most people here is that Colby finally gets his due after running his mouth for years. Unless you’ve somehow managed to avoid all MMA media, you’re well aware of his MAGA antics, the scantily clad girls on his Instagram and his goading of haters as soyboys and virgins. Whether you believe it’s a calculated act or his actual personality, you can’t deny how effective it’s been in getting people to care.
Usman is taking things personally, particularly the MAGA bit. Sliding right into the role as the good guy son of African immigrants, the champion has previously stated that he’d unleash “the rage of all immigrants” onto Covington. There’s already been some backstage drama and a lot of Twitter beef - coming up with the promo reel for this matchup probably wasn’t very hard.
The best part is that it’s a compelling matchup regardless of the context. Both men are 15-1. Usman is riding a 14-fight win streak and he thrashed Tyron Woodley for five rounds to win the belt this past March. Covington has won seven straight fights and has dominated each opponent during his run. Both are elite wrestlers and two of the best 170-pounders in the world.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Usman as a clear favorite, but Covington’s price indicates that oddsmakers think that this should be competitive. However, let’s look into all your betting options at the online sportsbook and get into your best betting picks. Live UFC betting is also available should you need to hedge any bets during the fight.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Colby Covington +150
Kamaru Usman -190
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -260 / +180
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Usman 4.2 / Covington 3.9
Striking accuracy: Usman 54% / Covington 37%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Usman 1.6 / Covington 2.35
Striking defense: Usman 57% / Covington 56%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Usman 3.96 / Covington 5.69
Takedown accuracy: Usman 50% / Covington 51%
Takedown defense: Usman 100% / Covington 78%
Submission average: Usman 0.19 / Covington 0.2
Bet this UFC fight at the online sportsbook
UFC Odds Pick: Usman to win at -190
At -190, Usman’s price just makes the cut as a recommended play, and if the betting action drives his line up any further think of it as a bonus.
We like the champ here because he can neutralize Colby’s biggest strengths. We all know the Covington is a punishing wrestler, but Usman has an equally decorated collegiate background that has transitioned seamlessly to MMA. Colby’s gas tank is one of the best in the business, but Usman showed that he can step on the gas for five straight rounds in his demolition of Woodley.
When we see two strong wrestlers collide, the action typically skews toward the striking. We have to give Usman the slight advantage here, as he has more pure punching power than his opponent. That being said, both guys aren’t very fluid on the feet, but possess a high striking rate which should lead to a lot of fun exchanges. In the end, we see Usman doing more damage and taking the win.
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