Former welterweight title challenger Stephen Thompson (14-4, 7 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet the surging Vicente Luque (17-5, 9 KOs, 6 SUBs) at UFC 244 on Saturday, November 2, 2019 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs live on pay-per-view at 7pm ET.
For a hot minute, Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson was looking like the next big thing at welterweight. Then came a failed title shot against Tyron Woodley, followed by a loss in an immediate rematch that was billed as one of the worst championship bouts in UFC history - the fight could not have been any more boring.
Though he scored a win over Jorge Masvidal, Wonderboy found himself on the wrong end of decision against Darren Till in yet another tepid five-rounder. Welcoming Anthony Pettis to welterweight was seen as a winnable matchup (the online sportsbook marked Thompson as a clear favorite), but Wonderboy suffered the first knockout of his career in spectacular fashion.
That leads us to this Saturday: Wonderboy is playing gatekeeper to the up-and-coming Vicente Luque. The Brazilian has won six straight coming into the contest, with five of those coming by finish. But despite his 10-2 UFC record, “The Silent Assassin” has yet to earn a signature victory. He’s taken the long route to get to Thompson, but he’s earned the respect of the MMA community with a run of scintillating finishes. It’s fair to say that Luque might just be the most underappreciated welterweight on the roster.
He’s got an amazing opportunity to change his fortunes this Saturday, as beating Thompson would vault him into the top tier of a loaded division. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook is available to make bets on real-time line updates during the fight.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Stephen Thompson -120
Vicente Luque -110
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -170 / +130
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Thompson 3.52 / Luque 5.19
Striking accuracy: Thompson 42% / Luque 55%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Thompson 2.54 / Luque 4.72
Striking defense: Thompson 60% / Luque 53%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Thompson 0.39 / Luque 0.95
Takedown accuracy: Thompson 45% / Luque 50%
Takedown defense: Thompson 78% / Luque 64%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Thompson 0 / Luque 1.11
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Let’s start with the standup, where the two men could not be more different. It’s well known that Thompson comes from a karate background, which manifests itself in a bouncy sidestance, a plethora of kicks and laser-like straight punches. Admittedly, it looks sick when he’s firing off, but he never really developed into the high-octane action fighter fans were expecting after he schooled Johny Hendricks. In fact, his lack of volume has cost him fights before - and he might become even more conservative after being knocked out for the first time.
Whereas Thompson is all calculated patience, Luque is an absolute madman as a striker. In stark contrast to Wonderboy, Luque will happily empty his gas tank attempting high-risk maneuvers. Luckily for the 27-year old, his dynamic offense and natural stopping power is usually enough to carry him to victory. While he’s destroyed low-level welterweights, fighters like Bryan Barberena, Mike Perry and Leon Edwards showed that Luque was vulnerable against guys who could wade through the fire and hang tough with him.
There isn’t a need to really dive into the grappling credentials here: Luque is solid at finding opportunistic finishes but doesn’t have the wrestling to force a grappling match. Plus, Thompson has been notoriously difficult to take down in the UFC. This one should stay on the feet.
UFC Odds Pick: Thompson to win at -120
Don’t be surprised if Thompson somehow turns this into a boring fight. Try as Luque might, Wonderboy will never be baited into the type of brawl the Brazilian loves. There is a risk that Thompson falls off a cliff at 36, but we’ll chalk up the loss to Pettis as a flash knockout. At this price, we’re going with Thompson to take a decision win.
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