Middleweight contender Kelvin Gastelum (15-4, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet former welterweight title challenger Darren Till (17-2, 10 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC 244 on Saturday, November 2, 2019 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs live on pay-per-view at 7pm ET.
For the past few years, the MMA world has been clamoring for Darren Till to move up to middleweight. After the first two losses of his MMA career (both early stoppages), including a lopsided title fight against Tyron Woodley, Till will try his hands at 185 pounds this Saturday.
There have been a smattering of former welterweights that have found plenty of success by going up a division. The first person that comes to mind is former champion Bobby Whittaker. The other person is Kelvin Gastelum - who happens to be welcoming the Englishman to the weight class this Saturday at UFC 244 in New York.
Gastelum has piled up a 3-2 record with one No Contest since joining the weight class in 2016. Most recently, he came up short in an interim title matchup against current champion Israel Adesanya. That scrap is widely regarded as the year’s best fights, and many will argue that it’s an all-time classic. That Adesanya recently handled Whittaker so easily to unify the belts shines a different light on Gastelum, who gave Stylebender his toughest test to date.
Till is in a prime spot to leap right into title contention. Of course, he’s also put himself at risk against one of the best fighters in the weight class. Should he fail to impress in a third straight loss, it’ll take him at least a few fights to prove that he’s actually somebody the upper level fighters need to take seriously.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting during the fight lets you make wagers on real-time line updates.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kelvin Gastelum -233
Darren Till +181
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +105 / -145
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Gastelum 3.86 / Till 2.41
Striking accuracy: Gastelum 43% / Till 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Gastelum 2.87 / Till 46%
Striking defense: Gastelum 61% / Till 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Gastelum 0.82 / Till 0.61
Takedown accuracy: Gastelum 50% / Till 40%
Takedown defense: Gastelum 62% / Till 83%
Submission average: Gastelum 0.18 / Till 0
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Till was a massive welterweight, but is now a regular-sized middleweight. Gastelum was a normal-sized welterweight but now a small-ish middleweight. But despite being 5’9” and consistently fighting dudes 6’1” and above, Gastelum has discovered his ability to outmaneuver opponents with his speed and interior boxing. The 27-year old is fast, athletic and accurate. On top of that, he’s fearless because he has to be. Weaving into range, Gastelum lets his fists fly in bunches, and there is plenty of pop behind them as well.
It’ll be interesting to see how Till responds to his recent losing streak. He actually entered his title fight with Woodley as a slight favorite, but in retrospect it was obviously a case of too much hype, too fast. T-Wood brought the pressure, refusing to give any space for Till to get his Muay Thai going, and in the end his wrestling proved too much. Masvidal was thought to be a winnable matchup - Gamebred is not an offensive wrestler - but he applied the same pressure and was able to score a knockout.
We can see why oddsmakers made Gastelum a clear favorite - he is a pressure fighter who will force Till to fight at a range where he’s obviously uncomfortable. If Gastelum can get his hands on a super elusive Adesanya, it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t do the same to Till.
UFC Odds Pick: Gastelum to win at -233
Kudos for Till to jumping right into the frying pan, but he should have thought twice before signing the line against such a bad style matchup. We expect Gastelum to steadily ramp up pressure, pour on the volume and nab a clear victory.
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