No. 12 heavyweight Tai Tuivasa (8-2, 7 KOs) will meet Moldovan prospect Sergey Spivak (9-1, 4 KOs, 5 SUBs) at UFC 244 on Saturday, October 5, 2019 at the Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, Australia. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
Just two fights ago, Tai Tuivasa was an undefeated heavyweight prospect poised to make a run at the top tier. This Saturday, he’ll be fighting to shed the bust label after back-to-back losses to Junior dos Santos and Blagoy Ivanov. At least the Aussie gets the chance to rebound in front of a home crowd in Melbourne.
“Bam Bam” isn’t getting an easy fight: standing across the cage from him will be Moldova’s Sergey Spivak, a 9-1 prospect with 9 finishes. “The Polar Bear” is coming off a loss in his UFC debut, getting blasted out of the octagon by Walt Harris in less than a minute. Just 24 years old, the UFC is still trying to figure out what they have in Spivak. In regional promotion, he finished all of his opponents - going to the second round just once - but Harris was clearly more than he could handle so early in his career.
Tuivasa made a lot of noise in his first three UFC fights, knocking out Rashad Coulter with a flying knee in his debut and obliterating Cyril Asker with punches in his followup. A win over Andrei Arlovksi followed, but he struggled against the longer, more technical striker. Now, he finds himself in a dangerous matchup: should he lose to the unheralded Spivak, the Aussie would drop out of the top 15 entirely.
Spivak has a chance to break into the rankings and earn his first UFC win, but online oddsmakers are favoring his opponent in this matchup. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook is available on fight night to make in-fight wagers with lines updated in real time.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tai Tuivasa -375
Sergey Spivak +277
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +315 / -445
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Tuivasa 4.42 / Spivak 0
Significant striking accuracy: Tuivasa 52% / Spivak -
Strikes absorbed per minute: Tuivasa 3.06 / Spivak 0
Striking defense: Tuivasa 59% / Spivak
Grappling Stats
Takedown average per 15 minutes: Tuivasa 0 / Spivak 0
Takedown accuracy: Tuivasa - / Spivak -
Takedown defense: Tuivasa 100% / Spviak -
Submissions per 15 mintues: Tuivasa 0 / Spivak 0
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Tuivasa is one of the division’s better prospects, but he still has yet to evolve into a fully formed fighter. He was able to simply blow out lower tier fighters in his first three UFC fights, and showed impressive athleticism for a soft-bodied fighter with his flying knee knockout over Coulter. However, as he’s leveled up, the 26-year old has struggled to impose his will. Arlovski was able to keep him at bay with his reach and jab, JDS was able to hit him clean far too often, and Ivanov was able to gas him out after just one round.
There are clearly some issues that Tuivasa needs to work on. The obvious one is cardio, as Bam Bam has the Mark Hunt body type and could clearly get into better shape. There are few things scarier than laying a bet on a fighter only to see him exhausted after just one round. When matchups devolve into slopfests, it’s usually a 50-50 proposition. Still Tuivasa has proven that he can fight tired.
Spivak isn’t just cannon fodder - he holds wins over experienced journeymen in Travis Fulton and Tony Lopez. At just 24 years old, he is already a solid boxer with the power to knock guys down and the grappling skills to nab opportunistic submissions. The matchup with Harris came on short notice, but having a full camp should give us a better idea of Spivak’s potential.
UFC Odds Picks: Tuivasa to win at -375
There is always some risk in picking a heavyweight with cardio issues, but Tuivasa’s power is something that Spivak will not be able to handle. We should see a return to form for the Aussie, who can revert to the high-risk striker we saw against Coulter and Asker. However, we’d suggest keeping a look at the live UFC betting odds at BookMaker: if Spivak shows well in the first round and Tuivasa starts tiring, a big bet on the Moldovan could net a nice payout to brag about.
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