Women’s No. 1 flyweight Valentina Shevchenko (15-3, 4 KOs, 7 SUBs) will meet former strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-2, 4 KOs, 1 SUB) for the vacant title at UFC 231 on December 8, 2018 at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
For fans of Muay Thai, this Saturday’s matchup between Valentina Shevchenko and Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a dream come true. Both women come from decorated Thai boxing background, competing professionally in the sport and even meeting in pro kickboxing bouts three times. You probably already know by now that Shevchenko won each time.
But MMA is a different animal, and there’s a flyweight belt for the taking. Ever since the 125-pound women’s class was created, people have just assumed that Shevchenko - who came close to winning the bantamweight strap - would inevitably hold the title. But attempts to book a fight with inaugural champ Nico Montano kept falling short, and the UFC eventually got sick of playing that game and stripped Montano.
That sets up a much more intriguing bout - Joanna ran circles around the 115-pound division as its champion until running into Rose Namajunas. Though she’s coming from a lower weight class, her name and credentials make her a far more qualified combatant against the elite Shevchenko. Plus, they’ve got that history.
Let’s dive into the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, where Shevchenko is a clear favorite. You can also bet live UFC odds to hedge any of your plays on fight night.
UFC 231 Betting at BookMaker.eu
Joanna Jedrzejczyk: +269
Valentina Shevchenko: -350
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -215 / +165
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Shevchenko 3 / Jedrzejczyk 6
Accuracy: Shevchenko 52% / Jedrzejczyk 47%
Absorbed per minute: Shevchenko 2 / Jedrzejczyk 2
Defense: Shevchenko 57% / Jedrzejczyk 66%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Shevchenko 1 / Jedrzejczyk 0
Takedown accuracy: Shevchenko 54% / Jedrzejczyk 66%
Takedown defense: Shevchenko 73% / Jedrzejczyk 82%
Submission average: Shevchenko 0 / Jedrzejczyk 0
Bet this fight at BookMaker.eu now
Let’s start with the obvious: Shevchenko has been fighting two weight classes above Jedrzejczyk, and that size will make a big difference inside the octagon. Joanna was a big strawweight, but she wasn’t one that could overpower 115-pounders with strength. There’s a real question of whether Valentina will simply be able to lock up her smaller opponent inside the clinch plug away with knees inside the clinch.
Even if Joanna is able to maintain the distance, there’s the fact that she lost three pure Thai boxing matches to Shevchenko already. It helps that the Polish powerhouse lands twice as many strikes as Valentina, so she could win some rounds on volume alone. But the cases where we’ve seen the former champ dominate on the feet came against far less-skilled strikers or matchups were Joanna’s had the height and reach advantage - Valentina doesn’t offer those channels to victory.
There’s also the very real possibility that Valentina will use her size to take Joanna down. Shevchenko is not a native wrestler, but she does average one takedown per 15 and we’ve seen Joanna muscled to the ground by Claudia Gadelha on occasion. Jedrzejczyk’s superior cardio carried her through in both Gadelha fights, but when’s the last time you’ve seen Shevchenko gas?
UFC Odds Pick: Parlay Shevchenko to win at -345
If you bet online, this is safe enough that you can use this to boost the return of another bet There are simply so few paths to victory for Joanna here, and too many huge obstacles to overcome. While this should be an exciting fight, Shevchenko will emerge with her hand raised.
Bet on UFC 231 Odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 231 takes place on December 8, 2018 at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
