Strawweight contender Claudia Gadelha (16-3, 2 KOs, 7 SUBs) will meet veteran Nina Ansaroff (9-5, 4 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC 231 on December 8, 2018 at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
Claudia Gadelha is in a tough spot. There are moments in every fight where she looks like the best strawweight in the world, but Joanna Jedrzejczyk clearly has her number, while Jessica Andrade absolutely brutalized her. A move up to 125 pounds could be a fresh start, but for now the 29-year old will stay in the deepest division in women’s MMA. Plus, with Rose Namajunas holding the belt, there’s a very good chance that Gadelha could find herself in another title shot.
But first things first: she’s got a date with Nina Ansaroff this Saturday. Ansaroff might not be a big name, but she comes into the matchup on a three-fight win streak, most recently scoring a solid win over veteran Randa Markos. This is a massive opportunity for the No. 11 Ansaroff, who could make a leap in the rankings with a win over the No. 3 fighter and a former title challenger.
For Gadelha, a loss would be a disaster. After losing to Andrade in humiliating fashion, she really struggled to get past Carla Esparza in a get-right fight. Failing to beat Ansaroff would pretty much shatter her chances at fighting for the belt anytime soon.
Let’s check in with the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, where Gadelha is a huge favorite despite her recent struggles. Let’s break down the fight along with your best betting options. As a reminder, live UFC betting is also available to hedge your bets.
UFC 231 Betting at BookMaker.eu
Claudia Gadelha -300
Nina Ansaroff +240
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -245 / +175
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Gadelha 3.23 / Ansaroff 4.82
Accuracy: Gadelha 42% / Ansaroff 47%
Absorbed per minute: Gadelha 4.47 / Ansaroff 3.31
Defense: Gadelha 57% / Ansaroff 55%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Gadelha 3.94 / Ansaroff 0.41
Takedown accuracy: Gadelha 52% / Ansaroff 40%
Takedown defense: Gadelha 58% / Ansaroff 80%
Submission average: Gadelha 1.02 / Ansaroff 0.81
Bet this fight now
When Gadelha first debuted in 2014, many expected her to one day become the champion of a fledgling division. She was one of the most decorated women’s BJJ practitioners on the roster, a physical monster and an awesome athlete. Her grappling was as good as advertised, and her explosive striking ability has drastically improved now that she’s training stateside. Some of the shots she landed on Jessica Andrade would’ve knocked out anyone else in the division.
But now, it’s clear that Gadelha has a major issue with her cardio - and by now the book is out on her. Gadelha’s gas tank is nearly as glaring a weakness as Arlovski’s chin or McGregor’s wrestling. Of course she’s been working on it, but the truth is she simply might be too big for the division - she cuts a lot of weight and carries a lot of muscle.
Ansaroff is best known for being the girlfriend of Amanda Nunes, but she’s actually rounding out into a solid fighter. She’s most comfortable in a kickboxing match, but the 32-year old is going to have to work to keep it standing against a fighter that averages nearly 4 takedowns per 15 minutes. Getting a decision win in her last outing over another wrestler in Markos is a good sign though.
Bet online: Gadelha to win at -300
This is a tough call, as Ansaroff is a major live ‘dog here. She’s the type of springy athlete that can drag Gadelha into deep waters, where the Brazilian always has trouble treading. However, we can’t get over Gadelha’s talent and ceiling, along with the fact that she’s a punishing striker in her own right. The price on Gadelha straight up is expensive, but a safe play. We’d also take a long look at Gadelha to win by submission, as she he has the ability to physically overwhelm a lot of her opponents.
UFC 231 Odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 231 takes place on December 8, 2018 at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
