Women’s strawweight contenders Jessica Andrade (18-6, 5 KOs, 7 SUBs) and Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-2, 1 KO, 2 SUBs) will meet at UFC 228 on Saturday, September 8, 2018 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The main card airs live at 10pm ET following the FS1 prelims.
Jessica Andrade and Karolina Kowalkiewicz both earned title shots at then-champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and both were thoroughly dominated. But now that the Polish kickboxer is no longer champion (thanks to Rose Namajunas), the division is wide open for these contenders. In fact, their main card matchup this Saturday can be viewed as title eliminator.
Each has a compelling case as the next title challenger. Andrade is arguably the most savage physical specimen in the weight class - a stocky pressure fighter who never stops advancing with hooks and suplexes. In a matchup with Rose, we’d expect “Bate Estaca” to open as the favorite. Kowalkiewicz is the last person that Namajunas lost to, and you can be sure that the champ would love to get that loss back.
Title implications aside, this should be an excellent scrap on its own. Both women prefer to crack, but go about it in different ways. Andrade’s brand of violence is reminiscent of old-school Wanderlei Silva, while Kowalkiewicz is an excellent technical kickboxer. There should be a lot of crowd-pleasing exchanges in this one.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Andrade as a massive favorite, but is Kowalkiewicz a live dog? Let’s break down your best betting options.
UFC 228 Betting at BookMaker.eu
Jessica Andrade -406
Karolina Kowalkiewicz +301
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -205 / +165
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed p/m: Andrade 3.24 / Kowalkiewicz 5.64
Accuracy: Andrade 51.58% / Kowalkiewicz 38.48%
Significant strikes absorbed p/m: Andrade 4.94 / Kowalkiewicz 4.89
Defense: Andrade 51.75% / Kowalkiewicz 57.14%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Andrade 3.24 / Kowalkiewicz 0.15
Takedown accuracy: Andrade 58.93% / Kowalkiewicz 14.29%
Takedowns defended: Andrade 75% / Kowalkiewicz 87.18%
Submission average: Andrade 0.49 / Kowalkiewicz 0
Jessica Andrade vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz Odds, Predictions and Picks
The Brazilian’s stats give amazing insight into just how aggressive she is. 6.24 significant strikes landed per minute is an astounding pace, especially when you realize she also averages 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes. Andrade offers zero respite in a fight - she is either backing you down and bombing on you with hooks or wrapping up a body lock for a slam.
Watching Kowalkiewicz fight, it’s a little difficult to see how she’s an elite fighter in a stacked division. The 32-year old isn’t a great athlete, her strikes don’t have much snap and she has little offensive wrestling to speak of. What she does have is serious grit, an iron chin and an endless gas tank. While not as aggressive as Andrade, Kowalkiewicz pushes the pace and forces her opponents into uncomfortable positions, draining away at their life bars.
In this matchup, KK will have to keep sticking combinations and circling out of danger. Andrade is at her best when she backs her foes up against the fence, which negates her shorter height and allows her to best utilize her massive physical strength. Jedrzejczyk was able to plug away at Andrade for five rounds while avoiding most of the takedowns, and Kowalkiewicz has to follow the same gameplan.
UFC Odds Pick: Andrade to win by decision -125
Claudia Gadelha was able to overwhelm Kowalkiewicz, and Andrade was able to overwhelm Gadelha. We just don’t see how Kowalkiewicz can hold up against the physicality of the Brazilian - and she doesn’t have Joanna’s natural athleticism to consistently slip out of trouble spots. However, Andrade’s money line to win is too pricey for our tastes, so take her to win by decision. Kowalkiewicz is extraordinarily tough and should be able to last 15 minutes easily.
UFC 228 Odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 228 takes place on Saturday, September 8, 2018 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The main card airs live at 10pm ET following the FS1 prelims.
