No. 5 featherweight Cub Swanson (25-9, 11 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet No. 9 Renato Moicano (12-1, 5 SUBs) at UFC 227 on Saturday, August 4, 2018 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
Cub Swanson is the featherweight you gotta get through if you want to be taken seriously as a title contender. Call him a gatekeeper, but the man has been on the contender fringes for years now - and you don’t hang around the top of a loaded division without being a wrecker in your own right.
Now, it’s Renato Moicano’s turn to test himself against Cub. The unheralded Brazilian has quietly proven that he’s got the goods, but now the 29-year old has got to show it under the bright lights of a pay-per-view main card. Should he beat Cub, Moicano would have a solid claim as a dark horse title contender. Honestly, that shouldn’t be the case.
We have no idea why Mociano is only ranked No. 10 at 145 pounds. This is a guy that outstruck Jeremy Stephens in just his third fight. He was locked even with No. 1 contender Brian Ortega before he got caught with a late flash submission. Most recently, he put an end to Calvin Kattar’s 10-fight winning streak.
Oddsmakers are fully aware of this, which is why our top-rated online sportsbooks for UFC odds have made Swanson a huge underdog in this contset.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Renato Moicano -410
Cub Swanson +330
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -245 / +175
Significant strikes landed p/m: Swanson 4.15 / Moicano 5.82
Accuracy: Swanson 49.9% / Moicano 47.54%
Significant strikes absorbed p/m: Swanson 3.27 / Moicano 3.37
Defense: Swanson 62.45% / Moicano 69.85%
Takedown average: Swanson 1.19 / Moicano 1.13
Takedown accuracy: Swanson 52.27% / Moicano 55.56%
Takedowns defended: Swanson 60.18% / Moicano 76.92%
Submission notice: Swanson 0.52 / Moicano 0.23
Seriously, Swanson at over +300? He should definitely be an underdog, but it’s not like he’s fallen off a cliff. He’s on a two-fight losing streak, but getting beat by Brian Ortega and Frankie Edgar is nothing to be ashamed about. Perhaps at 34, oddsmakers are expecting a steep decline, like we see in so many guys around the same age.
Or it could just be that Moicano is that good. His only stoppages are submissions, which is something you’d expect from a BJJ black belt. But when you watch his recent fights, it’s evident that Moicano is an awesome striker. The one-punch knockout power isn’t there, but this is a dude who is fast, explosive and dynamic. His high rate of significant strikes is a result of diverse kick-punch combinations.
But it’s not like Swanson hasn’t faced guys like this before. Plus, Cub is somebody that’s extremely difficult for newer guys to prepare for. A striker by trade, Swanson’s style is efficiently unorthodox. His bobs, weaves and leans are dramatic and off-rhythm, making him tough to hit clean. His strikes are unpredictable, making him tough to time. While Cub has always struggled against powerful wrestlers, he won’t have to worry about that against Moicano.
UFC Odds Pick: Swanson to win at +330
This price is too good to pass up on. Moicano looks like a stud, but Cub has turned away plenty of young hotshots before - most notably Doo Ho Choi and Charles Oliveira. While Moicano’s technique is better than either of those guys, Swanson has a way of bringing the fight into his type of ugly, so this should be much closer than the odds suggest. We’ll take our chances with a small bet.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 227 takes place on Saturday, August 4, 2018 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.