Women’s bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes (15-4, 10 KOs, 3 SUBs) will defend her title against Raquel Pennington (9-5, 1 KO, 3 SUBs) at UFC 224 on Saturday, May 12, 2018 at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The card airs live on pay-per-view at 10 pm ET following the FS1 prelims. Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and get the latest betting preview, predictions and picks below.
Raquel who? After being teased with a possible champion vs. champion superfight between Amanda Nunes and Cris Cyborg Justino, MMA fans will instead have to settle for a plain ol’ title defense. This Saturday, Nunes will meet Raquel Pennington in the main event of UFC 224 in Rio de Janeiro.
There’s really not that much hype for this fight, and that’s understandable. But let’s not forget that Nunes is easily the most explosive striker at 135 pounds - she ended the careers of both Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate with a hellstorm of brutal punches. For whatever reason, thrashing the stars didn’t make her a star, and a snoozer against Valentina Shvechenko didn’t help.
Perhaps she’ll get back to her destructive ways in her home country. Pennington certainly isn’t one to back down, reviving a career and winning four straight behind her trademark toughness. Quietly, the American has become one of the toughest outs in the division.
But is that enough to back her as a massive underdog? We admit that it’s tempting to bet on a grinder against a champ that’s been known to fatigue in tough fights - and making things ugly is what Pennington does best. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break it down.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Amanda Nunes -1000
Raquel Pennington +625
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over +115, under -135
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Nunes 4.28 / Pennington 3.8
Accuracy: Nunes 51.9% / Pennington 51.55%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Nunes 2.89 / Pennington 2.92
Defense: Nunes 54.9% / Pennington 66.52%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Nunes 1.77 / Pennington 1.43
Takedown accuracy: Nunes 34.62% / Pennington 43.48%
Takedowns defended: Nunes 75% / Pennington 69.7%
Submission average: Nunes 0.79 / Pennington 1.29
Matchup Preview
We get the feeling that this fight was booked more as a result of circumstance rather than merit. Nunes hasn’t defended in a while, but nobody has really distinguished themselves at 135 pounds. Though Pennington hasn’t fought since 2016, a four-fight winning streak was adequate enough to keep the champ active. This feels sort of like the men’s flyweight division.
While the striking stats are similar, the tape could not be any more different. Nunes punches have snap, which come from lightning quick hand speed. She bounces around the octagon and moves her feet well, whereas Pennington looks stuck in the mud. The American can throw hands, but they lack the crisp technique that the champ possesses.
What Pennington does well is grind, and that does target Nunes’ tendency to slow down later in fights. Still, she’s at a huge disadvantage in every physical aspect, and it’s tough to see her ever really wearing down the champ.
UFC Odds Pick: Parlay Nunes to win at -1000
Pennington is as tough as they come - a true journeywoman that can take hits but still drag it out to the final bell. The talent gap here is big enough that we suggest using it as a parlay booster.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision at +175
This is a risky play, since five rounds is a long time for Amanda Nunes to dish out some serious damage. But Pennington has never been knocked out despite taking some heavy fire in the past. She has a talent for gutting her way out of tight spots, and the price is good enough to prompt a small play.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 224 takes place on Saturday, May 12, 2018 at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The card airs live on pay-per-view at 10 pm ET following the FS1 prelims.
