Featherweight champion Max Holloway (19-3, 9 KOs, 2 SUBs) will meet undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov (25-0, 8 KOs, 8 SUBs) for the lightweight title at UFC 223 on Saturday, April 7 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card air live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m ET following the FS1 prelims. Bet on the latest UFC odds and get the latest previews, predictions and picks at BookMaker.eu now!
We get it, fight fans. You’re still salty that Ferguson’s injury - while turning around too quickly to say hi to somebody - wasn’t some cruel April Fool’s joke. You’re still angry that for the fourth straight year, the MMA gods have robbed us of the best matchup that the UFC can make right now. This time in the most bizarre way possible.
But don’t curl up into the fetal position just yet. There is a silver lining: an honest-to-goodness superfight. Sure, it’s the most hastily assembled one in the promotion’s history, but in any other context Max Holloway vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov would be a scrap that gets the MMA world hyped to the moon.
To be honest, Holloway’s basically in the toughest win-win situation we can think of. On one hand, the Hawaiian can become a legend. Plus, he earns an army of new fans who will praise his fearless warrior spirit for life. On the other hand, he’s got to face the human equivalent of a woodchipper - on six days notice. Nurmagomedov has been mauling dudes with the cold precision of a Terminator.
Naturally, the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu have opened with Nurmagomedov as a massive favorite. This is not an ideal situation for Max, but he’s got a major underdog price to consider. Let’s break down his chances and get into your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Khabib Nurmagomedov -528
Max Holloway +382
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +185 / -265
Fight Preview
There are plenty of people who think that Max is a worse matchup for Khabib than Tony. I’m not going to debate whether that’s true or not, but let’s just say even with a full fight camp Holloway would be a huge ‘dog.
Like Ferguson, Holloway is a guy that relies on weaponized cardio to make opponents wilt under a relentless pace. Rumor has it that “Blessed” was coming off an injury and not even training full-time when he got the call. Now he’s got a face a bully fighter without the time to hone arguably his most dangerous weapon? Good luck with that.
In Nurmagomedov’s last fight, he basically used Edson Barboza like a training dummy. He charged forward without a second thought against one of the division’s premier strikers, taking away the Brazilian’s vaunted kicking game and putting poor Edson on his back. Joe Rogan couldn’t help commenting on his frustrated, bewildered expression - he looked completely lost.
Holloway doesn’t have the explosive knockout power that Barboza does, though his footwork and movement are better suited against Khabib. Still, Max thrives on applying pressure, and that means getting close to the best wrestler in MMA. Nurmagomedov is so good that he doesn’t even need the usual blast doubles to get guys down.
In fact, it only takes one takedown for Khabib to change the course of the fight. Once he gets a guy to the mat, consider that round done. The beatings he gave Michael Johnson and Edson Barboza looked like a big brother beating up on a helpless sibling. And every subsequent takedown came a bit easier, as both dudes started putting up less resistance each time.
We know that Holloway is capable on the ground, but Ferguson is a bona fide jiu-jitsu stud. The young Hawaiian won’t be able to threaten with submissions in the same way, and that’s a problem when you know it’s going to end up on the ground at some point.
UFC Odds Pick: Parlay Khabib to win at -528
We just can’t endorse any other winner pick. If Max had a full training camp with his current price, we’d recommend a small play. But this is pretty much mission: impossible under the circumstances.
UFC Odds Pick: Khabib by KO/TKO
This is still a rather expensive price, and the risk is higher. But again, consider the situation: Holloway is facing a bigger guy and will likely not have the gas tank to sustain heavy fire for five rounds. This scrap is very likely to get called off early.
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UFC 223 takes place on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims.
