The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale takes place on Friday, November 30, 2018 at the Pearl Concert Theater at Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on FS1. The first night of a UFC doubleheader kicks off this Friday, with The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale leading the way. Does anybody still watch this show? I guess it doesn’t matter, since it gives us an excuse for more great fights.
We’re talking about the main event in particular: a legitimate welterweight contender matchup between the No. 3 Rafael dos Anjos and No. 6 Kamaru Usman. It’s one of those style vs. style matchups between a striker and a wrestler that makes MMA so compelling. Usman has yet to lose inside the octagon and could become a legitimate title contender with a win.
In the co-main, No. 9 bantamweight Pedro Munhoz meets submission wizard Bryan Caraway, who has only fought once since 2016 - a tough split decision loss to Cody Stamman. Munhoz is one of the division’s better grinders, gutting his way into the top 10 with an aggressive style and a sturdy chin. It’s always fun watching guys like that.
We’ll also take a look at a middleweight prospect matchup between Darren Stewart and Edmen Shahbazyan, and the debut of Antonina Shevchenko, younger sister of title contender Valentina Shevchenko.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best bets. Remember, live UFC betting is also available during the night to hedge your bets.
Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale Betting at BookMaker.eu
Main Event, Welterweight
Rafael dos Anjos +225
Kamaru Usman -265
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -175 / +135
Betting Analysis
RDA looked like a killer at 170, and then he ran into Colby Covington. Facing an elite wrestler for the first time since 2014, the Brazilian Muay Thai bomber was suffocated by Covington’s stifling style. Not only was the 34-year old unable to get any offense going, he actually looked a little shopworn.
This is important to bring up because Usman is another elite wrestler - and more explosive than Covington. Even though his blitzing counterpunches can be dangerous, the surging contender has to know that he’s not gonna outstrike one of the division’s better kickboxers. Unless he has a total meltdown, expect Usman to spend most of his time taking this fight to the ground.
UFC Odds Pick: Usman to win at -265
MMA math is a fluffy science, but you can assume that Usman should have the same success as Covington. Over the course of five rounds, RDA’s aging body won’t be able to withstand the constant blitz of yet another dominant wrestler.
Bet Online: Fight goes to decision -175 or over 4.5 rounds
Usman has gone to decision in six of his past seven, while RDA has seen the scorecards in four of his past five. Considering how tough RDA is and how wrestling eats up clock, you’re going to want to bet that this fight goes a while.
Bantamweight
Bryan Caraway +200
Pedro Munhoz -240
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -280 / +180
Betting Analysis
Munhoz has scrapped his way to a top 10 ranking, backed with a good chin and an aggressive, unrelenting style. He’s especially good at cracking his foes and jumping on them for a quick submission. On the feet he’s vulnerable against technical strikers with good footwork and angles - John Dodson was able to perfectly exploit this weakness.
But Bryan Caraway is no Dodson, and Munhoz will undoubtedly have the edge in a prolonged sparring session. But if this becomes a close-quarters tilt, then you know that Caraway is going to find a way to jump on Munhoz’s back. While Munhoz is no scrub when it comes to grappling, Caraway isn’t a dude that you want to be grappling with.
UFC Odds Pick: Munhoz to win at -240
Caraway had a fight to shake off ring rust, but Munhoz is an even better fighter than Stamann. On paper, he’s more well-rounded, younger and healthier. That’s who we’re going with here.
Quick Picks
UFC Odds Pick: Edmen Shabazyan -140 to beat Darren Stewart +100
Darren Stewart is one of those guys that the UFC keeps around because he swings for the fences and gets knockouts. Shahbazyan is making his promotional debut because he’s 20 years old and 7-0 with 7 first-round knockouts. Eventually he’ll have to deal with a major step up in competition, but Stewart isn’t that. Stick with the young phenom.
UFC Odds Pick: Antonina Shevchenko -325 to beat Ashlee Evans-Smith +265
Similar sentiments here. Shevchenko simply has a higher ceiling than her opponent, though Evans-Smith has undeniably faced better competition. We’re going to learn a lot about Shevchenko, but her background in Muay Thai should carry her against her more rudimentary opponent.
Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale Odds
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker Sportsbook today. The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale takes place on Friday, November 30, 2018 at the Pearl Concert Theater at Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on FS1.
