The top-30 golfers in the FedExCup standings assemble in Atlanta this week for the PGA Tour season-ending TOUR Championship and the $15 million first-place prize that comes with it. For the second straight year the tournament is using the staggered leaderboard formal. Dustin Johnson amassed the most points during the season and gets a head start over the field. DJ has a two-shot lead over second-place Jon Rahm before everyone even gets to the first tee box. The top-30 golfers colliding at historic East lake Golf Club also offers up some interesting matchups and the numbers look a little different taking into account the starting strokes system. BookMaker.eu has a complete list of tournament matchup odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
TOUR Championship Matchup Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mackenzie Hughes -141 vs. Marc Leishman +111
Kevin Na -109 vs. Lanto Griffin -121
Kevin Kisner -115 vs. Sebastian Munoz -115
Billy Horschel -161 vs. Ryan Palmer +128
Scottie Scheffler -135 vs. Tyrrell Hatton +105
Justin Thomas -250 vs. Rory McIlroy +194
Webb Simpson -173 vs. Rory McIlroy +137
Collin Morikawa -165 vs. Hideki Matsuyama +131
Hideki Matsuyama -202 vs. Tony Finau +159
Jon Rahm -222 vs. Justin Thomas +174
Kevin Kisner -158 vs. Viktor Hovland +126
Daniel Berger -135 vs. Hideki Matsuyama +105
Xander Schauffele -208 vs. Tony Finau +163
Tony Finau +124 vs. Harris English -155
Dustin Johnson -216 vs. Justin Thomas +169
Jon Rahm -575 vs. Bryson DeChambeau +392
Hideki Matsuyama -149 vs. Harris English +119
Daniel Berger -245 vs. Tony Finau +190
Dustin Johnson -530 vs. Bryson DeChambeau +368
Collin Morikawa -135 vs. Daniel Berger +105
Webb Simpson -194 vs. Bryson DeChambeau +153
Justin Thomas -163 vs. Webb Simpson +130
Collin Morikawa -210 vs. Harris English +165
Daniel Berger -176 vs. Harris English +140
Patrick Reed -121 vs. Scottie Scheffler -109
Daniel Berger -127 vs. Xander Schauffele -103
Xander Schauffele -121 vs. Hideki Matsuyama -109
Collin Morikawa -290 vs. Tony Finau +221
Justin Thomas -280 vs. Bryson DeChambeau +214
Xander Schauffele -157 vs. Harris English +125
Bryson DeChambeau -102 vs. Rory McIlroy -128
Dustin Johnson -115 vs. Jon Rahm -115
Jon Rahm -333 vs. Webb Simpson +250
Collin Morikawa -149 vs. Xander Schauffele +119
Dustin Johnson -475 vs. Rory McIlroy +337
Jon Rahm -500 vs. Rory McIlroy +351
Dustin Johnson -315 vs. Webb Simpson +238
Need to Know
The staggered start is designed to give those who performed better over the course of the season an advantage. Johnson opens with a 2-shot lead over Rahm with Justin Thomas 3-shots back, Webb Simpson four back and Collin Morikawa starting in a 5-shot hole. The bottom five players start at even-par, a staggering 10-shots off the lead. The matchup odds above include the handicap, which is why some of them look different. It’s not a guarantee that the top players succeed. Opening 5-shots back at last year’s event, Rory McIlroy overcame the field and the scorecard to win the FedExCup, setting a precedent for Morikawa. Playing just over 7,300 yards at par 70, East Lake has some of the narrowest fairways on Tour making accuracy an important stat. Winning scores ranged from -7 to -13 making it difficult for those further down the starting block to make up enough shots.
Kevin Kisner -158 vs. Viktor Hovland
We need to factor in the shot differential in the matchup picks. Head-to-heads with a big difference offer little value for the favorite. And making up a lot of strokes isn’t easy. I’m going to stick with matchups that have a slight differential starting with this one. Hovland was on the Korn Ferry Tour this time last year and his pace has slowed since a hot start, which is why I’ll back Kisner with a 1-shot lead. Kisner has flown under the radar with five straight top-25 finishes and three top-4s in his last seven starts. And a T3 here in 2017 is another feather in his cap.
Bryson DeChambeau -102 vs. Rory McIlroy
The defending champ finally broke through with a T12 last week, but it’s hard to get behind McIlroy since he could walk off the course at any time with the pending birth of his first child. It’s hard to play championship-caliber golf when your mind is straight so I’m fading Rory in favor of DeChambeau in this matchup. Bryson struggled in the playoffs with a MC at The Northern Trust and placed 50th last week, but I expect him to let it all hang out on a course that fits his game.
Daniel Berger +105 vs. Collin Morikawa
I wavered on this one thinking Morikawa is over the PGA Championship hangover. And he’s in the same spot McIlroy was in last year when he emerged with a victory. I can’t get over Berger’s consistency since the restart, though. He won the Schwab out of the break and outside of a MC at the Memorial he’s finished T2-3-T3 among his six top-25s. He has to make up two strokes to win the matchup, but I’ll take that risk at plus-odds.
Tony Finau +124 vs. Harris English
I’m going to ride Finau’s wave of momentum and bank of him making up two shots in this matchup. Finau always seems to rise to the occasion in big tournaments, though the victories have proved elusive. Still, his tournament-low 65 Sunday at Olympia Fields left a lasting impression. He plays well at East Lake riding a hot putter to a solo seventh last year while starting at 3-under. His distance on drives should allow him to make up ground as long as the flat stick continues to cooperate. Finau is another player with good value at his current price.
Webb Simpson +250 vs. Jon Rahm
I had to look at one longshot pick and Simpson hit me right in the chops. He sat out last week to rest up for this one and he only lost one-shot, so he’s still in a good spot. I’m counting on the recent run of form to continue, despite the off week, and making up two shots on Rahm has a hefty payout. Simpson had a podium finish at the Wyndham and shared sixth at The Northern Trust and he’s also 6 for 6 at East Lake with half those starts ending with a top-5.
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