PGA Tour Picks – Odds to Win TOUR Championship

PGA Tour Picks – Odds to Win TOUR Championship

The PGA Tour wraps up its season with the top 30 golfers competing for the $15 million FedExCup at the TOUR Championship. Racking up points over the course of the year comes in handy this week with leader Justin Thomas getting a head start over the field. And that’s why J.T. is the favorite at online sportsbooks. Thomas starts the tournament at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta at -10 while No. 2 Patrick Cantlay opens at -8. There is a gradual decline to the bottom five, who all start at even-par. Making up 10-strokes is a mammoth chore which is why those five players all have long odds to win the tournament.

Odds to Win TOUR Championship at

Justin Thomas +225

Patrick Cantlay +415

Brooks Koepka +535

Rory McIlroy +775

Jon Rahm +1150

Patrick Reed +1550

Xander Schauffele +2650

Dustin Johnson +2775

Webb Simpson +3350

Hideki Matsuyama +3550

Justin Rose +4250

Adam Scott +4450

Tony Finau +4850

Rickie Fowler +8050

Paul Casey +8550

Abraham Ancer +8850

Matt Kuchar +9050

Tommy Fleetwood +9250

Gary Woodland +9550

Kevin Kisner +10550

Brandt Snedeker +10550

Bryson Dechambeau +13550

Louis Oosthuizen +13550

Charles Howell III +14550

Marc Leishman +15550

Sungjae Im +15550

Chez Reavie +15550

Lucas Glover +16550

Jason Kokrak +17550

Corey Conners +17550

Odds Analysis

Justin Thomas +225

Give one of the best golfers on the planet a head start and he’s instantly the favorite. That’s the case with Thomas, who starts 2-shots ahead of Cantlay. And consider that JT has won four of six tournaments when leading or tied for the lead after the first round. We have no data on how he does when leading before a tournament starts since this is the first time the staggered format has been used. He is tough to beat when taking the lead, so I can’t imagine his game faltering when starting with an advantage.

Patrick Cantlay +415

He’ll be the closest to Thomas at the start just two-shots back, and Cantlay pressured J.T. last week before falling three-swings behind at the BMW Championship. That runner-up finish lifted Cantlay to No. 2 in the standings, but the surge started well before that. Over his last eight starts he’s finished outside the top-21 once and he has a win at the Memorial in June. He’s a consistent ball-striker and putting has been special during this run. Cantlay is T20-T21 in two starts at East Lake, so he’ll have to master the course while making up a pair of strokes.

Brooks Koepka +535

Entered the playoffs as the points leader but slipped to third after a T30 at The Northern Trust and T24 last week. He definitely has the goods to make up three-shots, but his results in non-majors have been erratic. This is about as close as he can get to a major and that might be the fuse that gets ignited this week. His approach game has improved this season and that could set him up well for a charge up the leaderboard.

Jon Rahm +1150

Making his third straight appearance at East Lake, Rahm opened the playoffs with a T3 at The Northern Trust and a T5 at the BMW Championship giving him five top-5s in nine playoff events. Add in a 7-T11-T3 in three starts before that and you have one of the hottest golfers on Tour. He’s second in the playoffs in GIR, which should be a big help when dealing with the narrow fairways.

Xander Schauffele +2650

Holding some value further down the odds board, Schauffele will have to overcome his recent inconsistent play. However, he’s been a terror at East Lake with a win in his 2017 debut and a T7 in last year’s title defense. He has a scoring average of 67.88 on this layout and he’ll need to at least shoot that and likely even better to overcome a six-shot starting deficit to Thomas.

Course: East Lake Golf Club – 7,385 yards, Par 70

The playoff format with a staggered start is all new, but the host venue remains the same. East Lake became the tournament’s permanent home in 2004. It’s an easy course as long as you keep the ball on the fairway, but aren’t they all. In terms of width the fairways here rank in the bottom 10 and along with firm grass it becomes difficult to keep the golf balls on the fairways. Hit the fairways, have a strong short game, and you’ll be just fine. Easier said than done, though. The field hits fairways here an average of around 54 percent. With the course playing at par 70 we aren’t going to see numbers like we had last week. The winning score has been between -7 and -13 for the last 11 playings, making it tough for the bottom of the pack to make up enough ground.

TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC

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