With the PGA Tour taking a Holiday break, the European Tour gets center stage when the field takes over magnificent Leopard Creek Country Club for this week’s Alfred Dunhill Championship, the middle stop on the three-tournament South African swing. Native golfers have been kept out of the winner’s circle the last two years. American David Lipsky ended a run of South African dominance that had been in place since 2011 with a victory in 2018. Pablo Larrazabal won the title last year and is back to defend his crown, though he will be met with some resistance. Brandon Stone is the betting favorite to return the trophy back to South Africa. He’s joined by fellow countrymen Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Wilco Nienaber at the top of the oddsboard.
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Odds to Win Alfred Dunhill Championship
Brandon Stone +1200
Robert MacIntyre +1400
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +1600
Wilco Nienaber +2200
Eddie Pepperell +2200
Shaun Norris +2200
George Coetzee +2500
Matthias Schwab +2500
Joachim B. Hansen +2500
Laurie Canter +3000
Garrick Higgo +3000
Adri Arnaus +3000
Joost Luiten +3000
Matthew Jordan +3000
Johannes Veerman +3500
Adrian Otaegui +3500
Marcus Armitage +3500
Daniel van Tonder +3500
Scott Jamieson +3500
Dean Burmester +3500
Gavin Green +4000
Jamie Donaldson +4000
Pablo Larrazabal +4000
Jorge Campillo +4000
Zander Lombard +4500
Darren Fichardt +5000
Wil Besseling +5000
Louis De Jager +5000
Richard Sterne +5500
Masahiro Kawamura +6000
Connor Syme +6000
Richard Bland +6000
Shubhankar Sharma +6000
Jayden Trey Schaper +6000
Jacques Blaauw +6000
Bryce Easton +6000
David Horsey +6500
Calum Hill +6500
Sean Crocker +7000
MJ Daffue +8000
Julian Suri +8000
Fabrizio Zanotti +8000
Steven Brown +8000
Jaco Ahlers +8000
Aaron Cockerill +8000
Odds Analysis
Adri Arnaus +3000
I couldn’t pick all South African players in this section so the lone holdout is Arnaus, who should be plenty motivated. He missed the cut last week after battling the coronavirus, which is my excuse. He’s certainly a talented enough player as shown by his second round 69 last week, though it wasn’t good enough to prevent a short stay at Randpark. It did show me he’s recovering and regaining form that led to a top-5 at the Italian Open before getting shelved with the bug. Arnaus is one of the best drivers on Tour and he should take advantage of Leopard Creek’s length increasing his odds of coming out on top.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +1600
I’ll now start the analysis of South African golfers. I was kind of surprised to see Bezuidenhout wasn’t at the top of the odds board considering his fondness for local courses, especially Leopard Creek. “It’s one of my favorite courses and the Alfred Dunhill Championship is one tournament I’d love to win just because it’s played at such a special course,” the highest ranked South African player in the field said. He followed up his T38 at the Masters with a T15 last week and is in good form ahead of an event he wants to win. That’s enough for me.
Garrick Higgo +3000
I keep coming back to Higgo, but it’s hard to overlook such a talent when he’s back on a course he played a lot of good golf on as an amateur. He was a disappointing T61 at Randpark, but for a guy with four wins in his first 40 professional starts there will be some hiccups along the way. He placed among the top-10 in strokes gained: approach last week and his drives are made for this course. I expect Higgo to clean things up around the green, which is why I’m backing him again.
Zander Lombard +4500
Lombard is one of a few players who has taken a liking to the renovated Leopard Creek course, which is why he gets a nod from me. It also helps that he flashed good form with a T15 last week that included a Friday 65. Two years ago he battled with Lipsky only to run out of luck to finish third. Chasing an eagle for a tie on the 72nd hole last year, Lombard ended with a snowman that dropped him to seventh.
Brandon Stone +1200
I try to look for value further down the oddsboard which is why I don’t always back the favorite. Stone’s play last week was encouraging after a month’s absence and he already has a win at Leopard Creek claiming the 2017 title by six swings. He gave away strokes with a first round 70 but recovered with a Saturday 64 to join the final group. He was the best tee-to-green and played well enough to win. That doesn’t always translate from week to week, but Stone is in a good place.
Course: Leopard Creek Country Club – 7,249 yards, par 72
The course was shut down a few years ago for renovations to make it more challenging for the pros. I guess the facelift worked. Larrazabal’s 8-under last year was the lowest winning score since the event moved to Leopard Creek in 2006. It remains a golf course that requires players to strike the ball accurately and the distance plays well for big hitters. The track sits on the edge of Kruger National Park and the Crocodile River winds through several holes, adding another hazard that could include the wildlife that make the surrounding area home. Three par 5 holes are on the last six of the layout and they’re all scoreable, giving golfers a chance to make up shots late.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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