The LEC Summer Split Playoffs get underway this week, and four teams are looking to keep their hopes of winning their first split title and earning an automatic berth into the World Championships alive. Splyce and FC Schalke 04 are the heavy favorites to advance to the semifinals. Both of those teams finished with double-digit wins this split, while opponents Rogue and Team Vitality both finished the season 7-11. It feels like we typically see one upset in the first round, but will that trend hold?
2019 LEC Summer Split Playoffs Quaterfinals Betting Odds
Rogue are the most improbable playoff team in recent memory. They finished the season with a GDM of -152 (just ahead of Misfits) per Games of Legends, and they made the postseason after finishing the Spring Split with an abysmal 2-16 record.
Mid laner Larssen has been the star of the team. He leads the team in damage output, and he does it despite being relatively passive in the mid lane. Larssen doesn’t make a lot of flashy plays in the early game, but he doesn’t get caught out either, so opponents are unable to bully him.
The decision to replace Profit with Finn in the top lane three weeks ago proved to be an excellent move. Finn has brought a lot more pressure in the laning phase, and his play on strong champions like Kled and Qiyana has been solid.
While Rogue are certainly improved, Splyce have some major advantages in this series. Splyce defeated Rogue in all four of their meetings this year, and they have a massive edge in the jungle. Xerxe has been incredibly proactive and he has consistently gotten the better of Inspired. Xerxe has a 5.5 KDA this split, and he does a great job of bridging the gap to where Splyce want to be in the late game.
Splyce are a much better team-fighting squad than Rogue, and for Rogue to pull off the upset, they need to jump on their opponent in the early game. They haven’t proven they can do that, so I don’t believe they have a shot to beat Splyce.
FC Schalke 04 -340
Team Vitality +254
Schalke hammered Vitality in their final regular season meeting last week. Abbedagge crushed Jiizuke in the mid lane, racking up nine kills and eight assists in a sub-30 minute win, but I wouldn’t count Vitality completely out of this series.
Vitality have underperformed all season long. Their only win over a playoff team came when G2 decided to smurf by taking Garen into the top lane, yet the team still has a lot of talent. The main issue has been their disjointed and overaggressive play, but they can pull off the upset if they keep their emotions in check.
As good as Schalke has looked at times, this team is very dependent on its bottom lane to win. Upset and Ignar have been sharp throughout this split, but they can be countered due to Upset only taking marksmen and they can be defeated elsewhere on the map. Upset is responsible for over 31 percent of Schalke’s damage, so neutralizing him would give Vitality the upper hand.
I expect YamatoCannon to have something new up his sleeve. I think he’ll do something cheeky in the bottom lane to turn the tables on Schalke, and that will make Vitality a live dog. Jiizuke’s propensity to become tilted is a concern, but it’s worth the risk at these odds. If both teams play to their full potential, I believe Vitality will pull off the upset.
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