After starting the season with 24 wins in its first 25 games, the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder seemed to be enjoying its headlines and social media love a little too much. Although the Thunder proved to be mere mortals, they remain the best team in the NBA and the favorite to repeat as world champions. On Wednesday night, the Thunder are heavy favorites to take apart the Milwaukee Bucks and their overrated and politically bloviating head coach, Doc Rivers.
Doc Rivers and the Bucks are a fascinating tale of branding over substance. The Bucks began the 2023-24 season under rookie head coach Adrian Griffin with a record of 30-13. Yet Griffin was fired for rather bizarre reasons, excused as a “bad fit.” Rivers finished that season 17-19. Last year, he went 48-34 before a 17-24 start this year. Rivers led the Boston Celtics to the 2008 NBA championship and led them to the Finals in 2010. Since then, he has developed a reputation for getting large contracts while flopping in the playoffs.
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks Betting at Bookmaker
Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI, is the venue for the Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder matchup on Wednesday, January 21, 2026. Tipoff time is at 9:30 p.m. ET with television coverage on ESPN.
The Bucks are an unappealing sell to gamblers, especially to casual bettors, given their opponent. Bargain hunters will consider Milwaukee on a contrarian basis and the likelihood that Oklahoma City is overpriced.
On the other hand, the Thunder will be much less expensive in this spot because they are the away team.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder are 35-8 straight up, 21-22 against the spread, and 22-21 over/under the total. Late on, Oklahoma City has covered two out of their last eight games. While the Thunder have gone over the total in four of their previous six matchups.
Oklahoma City is first in the Western Conference playoff standings. San Antonio is 5.5 games behind the Thunder in the Western Conference playoff race.
Oklahoma City ranks 2nd in scoring offense, 3rd in field goal percentage, 14th in 3-point field goal percentage, 2nd in free throw percentage, and 17th in offensive rebounding.
The Thunder rank 1st in scoring defense, 1st in field goal percentage allowed, 27th in 3-point field goal percentage allowed, and 23rd in defensive rebounding.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are 17-24 straight up, 17-24 against the spread, and 16-25 over/under. Late on Milwaukee has covered two out of its last eight games. While the Bucks have gone under the total in three of their previous four matchups.
Milwaukee is 11th in the Western Conference playoff standings. Milwaukee is six games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for the final top-6 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
Milwaukee ranks 27th in scoring offense, 5th in field goal percentage, 2nd in 3-point field goal percentage, 30th in free throw percentage, and 29th in offensive rebounding.
The Bucks rank 15th in scoring defense, 15th in field goal percentage allowed, 23rd in 3-point field goal percentage allowed, and 17th in defensive rebounding.
Thunder at Bucks Betting Trends
Oklahoma City covered the spread in only two of its last seven away games. The Thunder went under the total in five of its most recent eight road games.
In a similar way, the Bucks have been a poor betting value at home. Milwaukee covered the spread in only three of its last 12 home games. The Bucks went under the total in seven of their most recent nine home games.
In the series between the Bucks and Thunder, Oklahoma City won and covered the spread in three of the last four meetings. Four of the last five games between the Bucks and Thunder went under the total. The Thunder won and covered on its last visit to Milwaukee, with the game going under the total.
Thunder at Bucks Bookmaker Best Bets
Although Giannis Antetokounmpo remains an elite player, he has been worn down from carrying the Bucks franchise all these years and is no longer the best player in the Association. Instead, Oklahoma City owns the best player on the court for this game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should dominate in this spot.
Main Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder
Over/Under Pick: Under the Total
Player Prop Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over the Total Points Total
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