The Final Four tips off with a rematch of the 2018 regional semifinals when the No. 2 seeded Villanova Wildcats out of the South Region squares off against the Midwest Region’s top-seeded Kansas Jayhawks. When these historic basketball programs last squared off with a trip to the title game on the line, Jay Wright’s kids destroyed the Jayhawks 95-79 to easily cover the closing 5-point spread at online sportsbooks. Though Collin Gillespie was only keeping the bench warm as a freshman back then, you can bet your bottom dollar Bill Self will make it a point to have his troops ready for the rematch. KU has been the beneficiary of an extremely easy road to get to New Orleans due to the higher seeds wreaking havoc upon their region. They’ve been dealt another favorable hand going into this one with Justin Moore and steady offense paired with tenacious defense no longer available after suffering a season-ending Achilles injury in the Elite Eight matchup with Houston. Will his absence propel the Jayhawks into the next round with ease? Don’t count on it!
Take this Final Four matchup in live from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA on Saturday, April 2, 2022 at 6:09 p.m. ET. BookMaker.eu will have NCAA basketball odds available for this and every game lined up for the remainder of the NCAA Tournament.
NCAA Tournament Odds at BookMaker.eu
Villanova Wildcats +4
Kansas Jayhawks -4
Total 132.5
Odds Analysis
The betting line for this grudge match hit the board with the Jayhawks favored by 3.5-points and the total set at 132; line movement has occurred with both the side and total. The number to beat got as high as -4.5 in favor of Kansas before coming back down to -4 Monday afternoon. With 75 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money in the corner of the Jayhawks, some respected sharp money must’ve started showing up on Nova for the point spread to fall back down. These programs have squared off five times since the 2013 season with both Wright and Self roaming the sidelines. Villanova went on to win all but one of those matchups and covered the college basketball odds each time. The total has headed north reaching as high as 133 before settling back down to 132.5. Though the over stands a combined 30-28 overall between the two teams, each’s success is largely predicated upon the defenses ability to stymy the opposition. It going up could have much to do with Moore’s announced absence the remainder of the year. Combined, these teams have gone 6-2 to the under in the NCAA tournament.
Villanova Wildcats
What are March Madness bettors to expect with Moore out of Wright’s equation? For starters, the Wildcats will be without a steady contributor that averaged 15.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game in the regular season. He also proved to be clutch at both ends of the floor hitting big shots and coming up with big defensive stops or rebounds when needed. That means more of the onus will be put upon the shoulders of Gillespie (12.6 PPG), Jermaine Samuels (10.3 PPG), and Caleb Daniels (10.1 PPG). Moore was the team’s second-best 3-point shooter. That could spell trouble considering the Jayhawks have been tremendous at defending the perimeter all season long (No. 18). The 3-ball is a huge component of Nova’s offensive attack. If it’s not there, it’s tough to envision the offense excelling close to the rack since it’s not something they’ve excelled at all season long (No. 167).
Kansas Jayhawks
Trailing 35-29 at the half and it looking like the team would need nothing less than a miracle to win the game outright let alone cover the closing 5.5-point spread, the Jayhawks came out like gangbusters in the second half going on a 19-5 run to take full command of the proceedings. When the dust cleared, the defense only surrendered 15 second half points and put 47 on the board themselves to secure the impressive 76-50 win and cover. After allowing Kameron McGusty to score nearly half of Miami’s scoring output in the first half, the defense put the clamps down in the second half to allow for KU to Rock Chalk its way to the Final Four; the 16th time in program history might I add! Though Remy Martin pulled a no-show against the Hurricanes, he’s been one of the lynchpins to the Jayhawks run to New Orleans. He must show out on Saturday for Kansas backers to be in line of cashing a ticket.
Villanova vs. Kansas Betting Prediction
If the Jayhawks are able to defend the perimeter and execute like they did in the second half against Miami, they can go on and cut the nets down for the fourth time in program history. Kansas has the best defense (No. 17) of the four teams remaining per the current Pomeroy Ratings. Villanova however is right behind them (No. 18). That being said, the Wildcats are now without the heart and soul of the stop unit, so it remains to be seen if they can excel like they did with Moore on the court. I feel like NCAA tourney bettors overreacted to his season-ending injury with his absence already baked into the betting line when it first hit the board. I still think this plays out to an ugly grind that finds Nova in it all the way through. As great KU looked over the final 20 minutes versus the Canes, it was arguably their best played half of the season. I don’t trust anyone on Kansas to come up with the big shot with the game on the line. I do however trust Gillespie to make something happen under those same circumstances. As such, I’ll be playing the under small and taking the points with the Wildcats.
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