The first round of the NCAA tournament closes out late Friday night with the 8/9 matchup between the Seton Hall Pirates and TCU Horned Frogs. Online sportsbooks expect this to be a competitive matchup evidenced by the current betting odds, but I’m not sold. The Big East and Big 12 each sent half their members to the Big Dance this season. Though The Hall is currently installed the slight favorite, they didn’t play in the tougher of the two conferences in my estimation. The Big East has one truly dominant team, a solid but extremely lucky team and a number of overachievers; Seton Hall comprises the latter in my opinion. I won’t say the same for TCU who more than held its own in the rough and tumble Big 12 which just so happened to send two of the top seeds into the tournament. As such, the rough and tumble conference slate should have Jamie Dixon’s Horny Toads more than up for the challenge of securing the program’s first Big Dance win since way back in 1987. Look for TCU’s ability to hit the offensive glass to play a big role in it advancing into the second round where it’ll get annihilated by the No. 1 Arizona Wildcats.
Take this First Round matchup in live on truTV at 9:57 p.m. ET from the Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA on Friday, March 18, 2022. BookMaker.eu will have NCAA basketball odds available for this and every game lined up for today’s NCAA Tournament schedule.
NCAA Tournament Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU Horned Frogs +1
Seton Hall Pirates -1
Total 130
Odds Analysis
The number to beat for this evenly matched affair hit the board with the Pirates installed short 1-point favorites and the total lined at 129.5. With a bulk of the bets (63%) and money (92%) going the way of the lower seeded Horned Frogs, the point spread has bounced between -1 and pick ‘em since first opening Sunday night. I fully expect the No. 9 seed to go off the board laying a point or more. As such, I recommend taking the short +101 plus-money return with TCU now as opposed to being forced to laying any type of chalk come tip-off. KenPom.com has these teams ranked in the same neighborhood, but the T-Rankings find the Horned Frogs holding a noticeable advantage (37/49). I side with the latter! The total is up a half-point to 130 even though these teams combined to cash under tickets at a 32-24 clip combined; not buying it!
TCU Horned Frogs
Though TCU only managed a 2-4 SU record versus the Big 12’s best teams at the end of the regular season through the conference tournament, I still came away extremely impressed with the team’s overall body of work. They dropped an 82-69 decision at Texas Tech that saw them just fail to cover the 10.5-point spread, and held a 40-37 halftime lead in that one. Then they dropped a 10 point decision at Baylor as 10-point dogs. They avenged the loss to the Red Raiders by scoring the 69-66 outright win as 4.5-point home dogs in the rematch, and then followed it up with a 10 point handling of Kansas as 6.5-point home pups. They immediately went into the Phog two days later and only lost 72-68 as 11.5-point road dogs. This team stands 7-2 ATS its last nine games that were mostly comprised of the Big 12’s best teams. That should find them readily able to not only beat Seton Hall late Friday night, but do so convincingly.
Seton Hall Pirates
I was all-in on Kevin Willard’s Pirates making a run in the dance a few years back. They went on to get bounced in the first round. Tickets were ripped. This is a program that’s managed to get out of the first round in only one of its last four NCAA tournament appearances. I’m not sure this year’s squad has it in them to change the program’s fortune. Truth be told, I think they should be catching at least a possession if not more. The offense is nothing short of an abomination with it ranked No. 280 in effective field goal percentage with it doing most damage at the free throw line (No. 33) and hitting the offensive glass (No. 46). Both areas are likely to be negated by TCU who limits fouls and ranks No. 84 in defensive rebounding percentage. Where are easy points going to come from?
Betting Prediction
I’m scratching my head over here trying to figure out why the betting public is of the belief these teams find a way to combine for a high scorer. Neither offense excels at scoring the basketball. They’re much better at preventing the opposition from doing so. Should the O/U continue to rise, I’d entertain the thought of fading that action. Regardless, the side to back is the Horned Frogs who own the better conference pedigree and match up well with what Seton Hall does best. Look for Mike Miles to put forth a memorable performance and lead the Horny Toads to their first Big Dance win since the world got turned on by the “Dirty Dancing” Patrick Swayze and Jennifer Grey partook in back in ’87 - Nobody puts TCU in a corner!
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