The Memphis Tigers were extremely kind to my bankroll over the course of the last half of the regular season once Penny Hardaway’s kids got healthy and finally figured it all out. The Boise State Broncos did nothing but destroy my bankroll at online sportsbooks every chance they got. When I backed them on the college basketball odds, they failed to cover. When I faded them, they covered. If I laid 2-points, they won by one. When I took 2-points, they lost by three. It never failed! You’d think I would’ve learned my lesson by now, but I’m throwing caution to the wind and backing them with confidence in this West Region’s 8/9 matchup. Why the betting public can’t wait to lay the chalk against what I truly believe to be one of the best coached in-sync teams in the country is beyond me! This Marcus Shaver Jr. kid is as cool as a cucumber when the pressure’s on. I’ll bank on him coming up with the big shots when needed to set up a date with the NCAA tournament’s top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs thank you very much!
Take this First Round matchup in live on TNT at 12:45 p.m. ET from the Moda Center in Portland, OR on Thursday, March 17, 2022. BookMaker.eu will have NCAA basketball odds available for this and every game lined up for today’s NCAA Tournament schedule.
NCAA Tournament Odds at BookMaker.eu
Memphis Tigers -2.5
Boise State Broncos +2.5
Total 133
Odds Analysis
This tilt opened with the Tigers installed 2-point favorites and the O/U lined at 132.5-points. With Memphis taking 68 percent of the bets and 64 percent of the money per early wagering reports, the number to beat has jumped a half-point to -2.5. The total was bet down to 131.5 initially, but has since taken some over steam ultimately forcing linemakers to bump it up to 133. Personally, I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. The AAC paled in comparison to that of the Mountain West this season, and the latter sent four teams to the Big Dance while former only sent two. Even the Pomeroy Ratings have Boise State (No. 26) ranked higher than Memphis (28). It’s not by much, but it’s enough to validate my belief on which team is better.
Memphis Tigers
If the Tigers think they’ll be able to speed this game up and play to their tempo strength (No. 34), they’ve got another thing coming. What they should make it a point to concentrate on however is ball security with its 22.9 turnover percentage one of the worst in the country (No. 352). That detriment to their game just cost them dearly in Sunday’s non-competitive 71-53 loss to the Houston Cougars after turning it over 14 times in what proved to be a very low scoring 71-53 final score. That same type of game will be presented to them in this first round matchup as well with Boise State playing to a snail-like No. 307 tempo rating. For Memphis to even just come out on top, a big game will be needed from Deandre Williams whose been irritatingly inconsistent of late.
Boise State Broncos
Hopefully the Broncos still have air in the tires after being forced to go through a gauntlet of opponents in the MWC tournament that included Nevada, Wyoming and San Diego State. That 53-52 finals win over the Aztecs was quintessential Boise State basketball with it forcing 10 turnovers and holding SDST to a 35 percent showing from the field. Nothing the Broncos does jumps off the page and makes you want to back this team be it on the point spread or moneyline with regularity. That being said, it still went on to win 24 games to win the regular season title and then followed it up by cutting down the nets in the conference tournament. It’s also the only MWC team to have logged a double-digit win tally on the road.
Betting Prediction
Don’t want the points. Don’t need the points. Gimme that moneyline pay-off! But only once the betting public stops betting into the Tigers. If the Tigers inability to hold onto the basketball rears its ugly head, Boise could run away and hide in this one. Even the Tigers advantage on the offensive glass (No. 5) is likely to be negated by Mladen Armus (7.8 RPG) and the country’s No. 4 ranked defensive rebounding team. Again, I have no clue why Memphis is favored to win. I’m scratching my head even more as to why JQP is buying into that fabricated betting line hook, line, and sinker! Boise State has been my kryptonite all season long. It’s high time they paid me back huge – Big Bet on the Broncos $-Line who also get the benefit of playing much closer to home.
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